RANE Podcast Series Syria after Assad
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Jan 24, 2025 The podcast delves into the stunning collapse of the Syrian government following a rebel offensive, examining the rapid changes in the power dynamics. It highlights the severe economic turmoil faced by the Syrian populace, including unpaid wages and food shortages, that fueled the rebellion. The discussion navigates the chaotic political transition, exploring fears of renewed violence and the complexities of forming a stable government. Finally, it envisions a potential future under an Islamist-controlled regime, while analyzing regional influences and prospects for peace.
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The Fall of Assad
- In late November 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group, launched an offensive in Idlib province.
- This offensive led to the rapid and unexpected collapse of the Syrian government, surprising many, including the Assad regime itself.
Reasons for Collapse
- The Syrian government's collapse was likely due to a combination of internal betrayal, infiltration by HTS, and the chaos caused by years of war, purges, sanctions, and poverty.
- The Syrian army was unable to function effectively as an organizational force due to these factors.
Messy Transition
- The political transition in Syria is messy, with the de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (head of HTS), running the country without a formal position.
- Rebel factions are trying to negotiate a transition, but deep compromises are needed to avoid another civil war.