Experts Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant, and Bilal Wahab discuss the fragile state of Iraq, power dynamics including Iranian-backed militias, future of US forces in Iraq, strategic dialogue, and the delicate US-Iraq relationship.
Iraq struggles with institutional weakness and militia control, leading to a fragmented state.
US faces a dilemma in stabilizing Iraq amidst regional tensions and uncertain future relationships.
Deep dives
The state of Iraq today
Iraq is described as a highly fragmented and institutionally weak state that has been co-opted by non-state armed groups, leading to regional penetration and pockets of instability. While some analysts believe Iraq is stable in the southern states, others argue that Baghdad has experienced progress but remains troubled. The United States faces a dilemma regarding whether to invest more to stabilize Iraq or cut losses and leave due to mixed past results. The country is seen as a hyper-fragmented state with contested authority and selective sovereignty. Iraq's relations with the US are seen as fragile and there exists an opportunity for increased engagement beyond security through partnerships, economic investments, and cultural exchanges.
The aftermath of October 7
Following October 7, Iraq experienced a flip in stability with Baghdad achieving progress prior to the war in Gaza inflaming passions in the region. However, underlying instabilities remained as key issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government had not been resolved, Iranian-backed militias controlled crucial sectors of the economy and society, and fragile state institutions persisted. The assassination of a Qatib Hezbollah leader and strong support for the Palestinian cause heightened fragility in Iraq. The power and authority in Iraq are contested between the government in suits and militias, creating a complex security landscape.
The future of US forces in Iraq
Discussions are ongoing regarding the future relationship between the US and Iraq. While the US is negotiating with the Iraqi government to transition from the coalition presence to a bilateral agreement, it remains uncertain if such a transition would alleviate tensions with militias. Iraq's desire for a normalized relationship with the US is met with hesitation due to the lack of regional support and waning interest from the US government. Both countries are under pressure to address domestic concerns, which may impact the decision on the presence of US forces in Iraq. A responsible transition is sought, but the future state of Iraq is seen as weak, with ongoing militia presence and Iranian influence.
Escalation and uncertainty
The potential for escalation in Iraq is influenced by domestic pressures, such as popular support for the Palestinian cause and regional dynamics. While Iraq aims to avoid becoming a battleground between Iran and the US, the influence of domestic populations inhibits desired responses to secure assets. The Iraqi government's control over militias and the broader context of the Middle East should be considered. The future state of Iraq is uncertain, with predictions ranging from continued weakness and corruption to increased regional integration and positive engagement with Iraqi youth as a potential catalyst for change.
Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics? They debated what Iraq was like on Oc. 6th, how it has been impacted by the war in Gaza, and where the country will be five years from now.
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