Behind the Money Martin Wolf on the economy in 2026
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Jan 7, 2026 
Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, brings his deep insights into the economic landscape of 2026. He dissects the potential bubble of AI stocks and the uncertainty surrounding market corrections. Wolf discusses the radical shifts in global trade policy and predicts increasing protectionism, particularly in Europe. He raises alarms about the risks posed by deregulation in finance and cryptocurrency, while suggesting that political dynamics may overshadow economic factors. Surprises could arise from technological advancements or unforeseen developments in China.
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AI Valuations Could Be A Bubble
- Rapid, concentrated stock gains (e.g., NVIDIA) raise classic bubble questions tied to future profit realization.
- Bubbles can persist for years and then correct much faster than expected, so timing is unpredictable.
Trade Policy Has Entered Anarchy
- U.S. tariffs in 2025 raised average protection to post-WWII levels and created extreme variance across products and countries.
- This novel unpredictability has created a new, chaotic global trade landscape unlike prior eras.
Tariffs Will Spark Wider Protection
- Higher U.S. tariffs on China will divert exports to other markets like Europe, prompting those markets to raise protections.
- Expect rounds of protection and retaliation, plus complex trade diversion through intermediaries like Vietnam.