Escalating violence in the Middle East; the rising humanitarian crisis and the potential for spread of the conflict regionally
Oct 15, 2023
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Guests Sara Sidner and Richard Haass discuss the complications of Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, the wider implications of the Israel-Hamas war on the Middle East, and the potential impact on global geopolitics. Other topics include Palestinian reactions to the violence, the intelligence failure that opened the door for Hamas' attack, and the origins and evolution of Hamas.
The Israeli government's focus on domestic and international matters may have led to an intelligence failure and delayed response to Hamas' attack on Israel.
The Middle East conflict reflects a global contest between the forces of order and disorder, with multiple regional players seeking to advance their own interests and erode the international system.
Deep dives
Hamas's Surprise Attack on Israel
Hamas's recent terror attack on Israel caught the Israeli government by surprise, delaying their response to protect civilians. However, this attack was not unforeseen, as previous conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have occurred. The Israeli government's focus on other domestic and international matters, such as judicial overhaul and the Saudi deal, may have led them to ignore warnings and take Gaza for granted. Additionally, there seem to be deeper political strategies at play, with claims that Netanyahu supported Hamas to undermine the Palestinian Authority and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. The larger backdrop of the Middle East, shaped by the actions of the US, the Iraq War, and the subsequent power vacuum, has complicated the situation. The region has become a battleground for multiple players seeking to advance their own interests, including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Israel. This conflict is representative of the global contest between the forces of order and disorder, with Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas seeking to erode the international system. The challenge for Israel is to respond to Hamas without jeopardizing potential normalization with Saudi Arabia, which could be a significant setback for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
Israel's Goal in Gaza: Rid Hamas Forever
Israel aims to eliminate Hamas from Gaza through a ground invasion. They want to eradicate the threat and prevent future terrorist attacks. However, the exact strategies and plans for the ground operation are not disclosed. The Israeli military has amassed troops near the Gaza border, preparing for the next stages of war. The goal is to not only defeat Hamas but also focus on rebuilding defenses outside of Gaza, strengthening Israel's security. The Israeli response needs to be carefully calibrated, avoiding excessive casualties and avoiding actions that could jeopardize potential normalization with Saudi Arabia. The strategic objective for Israel is to deal with the Palestinian issue in a way that allows for the resumption of negotiations on Saudi normalization. Establishing normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a severe setback for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
The Broader Context of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is deeply intertwined with the broader dynamics of the Middle East. Washington's actions, particularly the Iraq War and subsequent withdrawal of American power, have disrupted the delicate balance between Iran, the Arab states, and different sectarian groups such as Shiites and Sunnis. The power vacuum created by the US withdrawal allowed various regional players, including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Israel, to assert their interests. The Middle East has seen decades of instability and conflict, with Iraq, Syria, and Yemen being notable examples. Different regional players have chosen sides, seeking to maximize their advantages and weaken their adversaries. This conflict represents a global contest between the forces of order and disorder. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas aim to erode the international system. A major concern is that if Hamas succeeds in its current attacks, it could encourage other groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis to escalate their attacks as well. The United States cannot fully disengage from the Middle East and must remain involved diplomatically to promote stability in the region.
Understanding Hamas: Origins and Appeal
Hamas was founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood during the first intifada (uprising) in Palestine. It emerged as an armed group resisting Israeli military occupation, aiming to gain control of all of Palestine and Islamize Palestinian society. Unlike the more moderate Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) led by Yasser Arafat, which engaged in peace talks and negotiations with Israel, Hamas rejected compromise and sought all of Palestine under their control. They established roots through social work, political activism, the mosques, and gradually gained support among Palestinians who were disillusioned by the lack of progress in peace talks and frustrated with the Israeli occupation. However, it is challenging to determine the exact level of support Hamas holds among Palestinians due to the absence of elections and the complexity of polling in the region. It is important to note that there were allegations of military and political support from the Israeli government in the early years, considering Hamas as an enemy's enemy to undermine Arafat's PLO. However, it is unclear to what extent these allegations are true.
This week's show focuses on the escalating violence following the Hamas attack on Israel.
Fareed speaks with CNN Senior International Correspondent Sara Sidner, who joins the show live from Tel Aviv to discuss the complications of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza and the implications of removing Hamas.
Then, Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Richard Haass joins the show to discuss the wider implications of the Israel-Hamas war on the Middle East and its potential impact on global geopolitics.
Next, Fareed discusses Palestinian reactions to the violence with Rashid Khalidi, a Professor of Modern Arab Studies at Columbia University.
Israeli investigative journalist Ronen Bergman joins the show to discuss the intelligence failure that opened the door for Hamas' attack on Israel.
Plus, Reuters journalist and author of the book, "Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement," Stephen Ferrell discusses the origins of Hamas and how the group has become what it is today.
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