Deciphering China's Nuclear Modernization

For many years, China’s nuclear doctrine was widely described as “minimum nuclear deterrence,” which essentially means that it relied on a limited number of nuclear weapons to deter an adversary from attacking. China’s authoritative defense white papers asserted that China sought to maintain a lean, effective and credible deterrent force, was committed to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, pursued a defensive nuclear strategy and would never enter into a nuclear arms race with any other country. 

In recent years, however, China has begun to expand and modernize its nuclear forces. Beijing is not transparent about its nuclear arsenal or its doctrine, however, which creates uncertainty for the United States and its allies.

To help us decipher Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by John Culver, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and a former CIA senior intelligence officer. He is a co-author of a recent report published by the Atlantic Council titled “Adapting US Strategy to Account for China’s Transformation into a Peer Nuclear Power.”

Episode Highlights

[1:55] Key identifiable changes in China’s nuclear forces 

[3:49] China’s nascent nuclear triad 

[6:51] The drivers of China’s nuclear expansion 

[11:00] The recent ICBM test and its implications 

[14:50] How China might use its nuclear weapons 

[18:43] Will China change its nuclear declaratory policy

[24:59] How China’s relationship with Russia could shape Beijing’s calculous 

[27:45] How the U.S. and its allies should respond