Stocks Are "As Expensive As I've Ever Seen Them" | Ted Oakley

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Dec 11, 2025

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner of Oxbow Advisors, shares his expert insights on the current stock market landscape, stating that stocks are at an all-time high in valuation. He discusses the potential for a market peak in 2026-2027 and highlights the risks of complacency among investors. Oakley emphasizes the challenge posed by retiring boomers who may create selling pressure, and advises on strategic asset allocation. With thoughts on commodities and a value-focused stock selection approach, he offers a roadmap for navigating an uncertain investment landscape.

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INSIGHT

Markets Are In Late-Inning Valuation Territory

Ted Oakley sees current stock valuations as extremely high and believes we are in the "eighth or ninth inning" of this bull market.
He warns that complacency and high CAPE ratios make a significant market downturn likely within a few years.

INSIGHT

Generational Complacency Sets Up A Big Reset

Ted expects a generational humbling as many investors have never faced a true bear market since 2008.
He predicts a significant market correction within the next two to three years as complacency collides with reality.

INSIGHT

Complacency Creates Systemic Vulnerability

Oakley highlights extreme investor complacency, likening widespread uniform positioning as dangerous when markets turn.
He notes advisors and retail investors alike are largely unaware of downside risks today.

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Short of a dramatic surprise in the next few weeks, the markets should end 2025 with another big double-digit positive return, for third year in a row.A string of three-peats like this is quite rare in markets. Which raises the question: Can the momentum last in 2026?Or will the market's returns start to mean revert.To discuss, we have the good fortune of welcoming back to the program high net worth financial advisor Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors.Ted thinks stocks are as expensive as he's ever seen them in his long career. And while he admits no one knows when the market top will be in, he's pretty confident we're in the 8th or 9th inning of the bull market at this stage.

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