In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 178: Assad la vista, baby - what does Damascus's fall mean for Russia?

Dec 8, 2024

Bashar al-Assad's regime faces collapse, sparking a debate over Russia's geopolitical fate. The discussion dives into Russia's military strategies and the evolving role of its naval power in the Mediterranean. Are troop movements signaling overstretch? Regional dynamics shift as players like Turkey and Iran respond to Syria’s instability. Local populations are also crucial in shaping Syria's future amidst chaos. As commitments shift, what will be Russia’s next move in this turbulent landscape?

46:13

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime signals a potential shift in power dynamics, creating concerns about Syria's future governance and stability.

Russia's military withdrawal from Syria highlights its diminished influence in the region and prompts reassessments of its strategic commitments amid ongoing conflicts.

Deep dives

The Changing Landscape of Syrian Power

A significant shift in power dynamics is occurring in Syria, marked by the recent offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously known as the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. This group is attempting to rebrand itself as a nationalist entity while seizing territory from the Assad regime, which was previously considered firmly in control. The fall of Assad's regime raises concerns about whether Syria will develop into a new democratic state or descend into chaos akin to Afghanistan. Notably, the situation remains precarious, as HTS is regarded as a terrorist organization by Western nations, complicating the potential for stability and governance.

Intro

3min

Syria's Future and Russia's Role

16min

The Changing Landscape of Russian Naval Power in the Mediterranean

5min

Russia's Strategic Dilemmas in Syria and Beyond

10min

Shifting Power Dynamics in Syria

10min

The Role of Local Populations in National Destinies: The Case of Syria

3min

So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.

That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

Support the show

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode