In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 178: Assad la vista, baby - what does Damascus's fall mean for Russia?
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Dec 8, 2024 Bashar al-Assad's regime faces collapse, sparking a debate over Russia's geopolitical fate. The discussion dives into Russia's military strategies and the evolving role of its naval power in the Mediterranean. Are troop movements signaling overstretch? Regional dynamics shift as players like Turkey and Iran respond to Syria’s instability. Local populations are also crucial in shaping Syria's future amidst chaos. As commitments shift, what will be Russia’s next move in this turbulent landscape?
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Syria's Diminished Importance
- Syria's importance to Russia has diminished since 2015.
- Russia's intervention aimed to prevent a repeat of Afghanistan, where a seemingly stable government collapsed after Soviet withdrawal.
Breaking Isolation
- Russia's 2015 intervention in Syria aimed to break diplomatic isolation imposed after Crimea's annexation and MH17.
- Injecting itself into Syria forced engagement with Russia, challenging the isolation strategy.
Forced Interaction
- Mark Galeotti recounts a story about a hawkish academic displaying a photo of Putin meeting a visibly uncomfortable Obama.
- The academic's point was that forcing this interaction, despite Obama's reluctance, was a victory for Russia.