The Bunker – News without the nonsense What is The OBR anyway? – Understanding Britain’s under fire fiscal watchdog
Dec 4, 2025
In this discussion, economist Giles Wilkes, who has advised high-profile UK politicians, delves into the recent fallout surrounding the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). He explains its creation and importance, emphasizing how it serves as a guardian of fiscal integrity in the UK. Wilkes highlights the OBR's role in scrutinizing government costings and ensuring long-term economic sustainability, especially under political pressures. The conversation also tackles the implications of recent leaks and the broader institutional versus populist tensions affecting fiscal policies.
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Why The OBR Was Created
- The OBR was set up to depoliticise fiscal forecasts after trust in Treasury numbers fell during the Brown era.
- Giles Wilkes says it professionalised forecasting and matched institutions seen in other countries like the US CBO.
Transparency Boosts Accountability
- Giles Wilkes praises the OBR's transparency from publishing detailed outlooks roughly every six months.
- He argues their rigor enhances accountability despite inevitable forecast errors.
How OBR Stopped A Costly Tax Break
- Giles Wilkes recounts the coalition-era 'shares for rights' tax break that the OBR exposed as a costly loophole.
- Its costing allowed ministers to drop the policy and avoid a needless billion-pound giveaway.