Join Kingsmill Bond, a respected Energy Strategist at RMI, as he challenges ExxonMobil's predictions about future oil demand. He argues that the fossil fuel sector is underestimating the rapid energy transition. The discussion covers the exciting potential for the Global South to leapfrog fossil fuels with renewables like solar and wind. Bond shares insight on clean technology advancements and how they may peak fossil fuel demand sooner than expected. Ultimately, he emphasizes an optimistic outlook for a sustainable energy future despite current pessimism.
The forecast by ExxonMobil suggesting stable oil demand by 2050 underestimates the rapid progress of clean energy technologies worldwide.
The Global South is breaking through barriers to clean energy adoption, with a significant number of countries surpassing key renewable investment thresholds.
Deep dives
The Peaks of Fossil Fuel Demand
Demand for fossil fuels is witnessing a series of peaks and declines, signaling significant shifts in energy consumption patterns. Key milestones include the peak in fossil fuel demand in the OECD in 2007 and the peak in the industrial sector in 2014 due to the electrification in China. Additionally, the demand for internal combustion engine vehicles peaked in 2018. These trends illustrate an ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources, as the global reliance on fossil fuels is expected to decline markedly by the end of the decade.
The Rise of Clean Energy Technologies
The exponential growth of clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and battery solutions, is becoming large enough to disrupt existing fossil fuel systems. Different regions are experiencing this transition at varying paces, with OECD countries and China leading the way towards peak demand and greater adoption of renewables. For example, electric vehicles now constitute 50% of total car sales in China, indicating a rapid shift. The trends highlight the urgent transition taking place as countries in the global south look to capitalize on cheaper clean technologies, further diminishing fossil fuel demand.
Resistance and Opportunities in the Global South
The Global South is poised for a significant leap in clean energy adoption, overcoming previous barriers such as high capital costs for clean technologies. While some elites may resist this change to protect their fossil fuel interests, the declining costs of renewables are paving the way for widespread adoption. Remarkably, 60% of countries in the global south have surpassed the 5% tipping point for renewables in electricity generation. As investments in solar and wind ramp up, these regions are likely to embrace clean technologies, supporting both economic growth and energy security for their populations.
ExxonMobil forecasts 2050 Oil demand be the same as today. We believe that they are just “talking their books.”
To discuss the future of the Energy system as well as the fight against Climate Change, we bring in a very respected expert and friend of the show: Kingsmill Bond, Energy Strategist at RMI. Kingsmill has been digging deep into the data and has realized that the fossil fuel cohort simply cannot fathom the speed of the Energy Transition.
Gerard and Laurent have a lengthy debate about the trends, the adoption of clean energy, not only in the OECD, but also what is now referred as the “Global South” and deliver an optimist message about the future.
In the present, the pessimists always sound smarter, but in the long-term optimists are always right. -------