Existential Hope Podcast: Helen Toner | Who gets to decide AI’s future?
May 2, 2025
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Helen Toner, Director of Strategy at Georgetown’s CSET and former OpenAI board member, dives into the intricate world of AI governance. She discusses who truly shapes AI’s future, emphasizing the power struggles between the U.S. and China. The talk highlights the urgent need for transparent policies and international cooperation amidst rising tensions. Toner also explores the distinctions between different types of AI and champions the idea of existential hope, proposing proactive approaches to harness AI for solving global challenges like climate change and disease.
The current AI governance landscape shifts focus from technical aspects to vital policy development, highlighting the need for stakeholder consensus on risks and capabilities.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, complicate AI governance efforts, suggesting a need for informal coordination over traditional binding agreements.
Deep dives
Current State of AI Governance
The current landscape of AI governance is characterized by a shift from technical focus to increased policy attention, particularly after the rise of tools like ChatGPT in late 2022. Policymakers have become more engaged in addressing the complexities of AI, yet many critical governance frameworks remain underdeveloped, especially in the U.S. There is a notable divide in perspectives regarding the trajectory and risks associated with AI advancements, with some believing that technology will evolve rapidly and dangerously, while others view a slower and less harmful progression. The emphasis now is on fostering agreement among stakeholders about the capabilities and risks of AI systems, as establishing a common understanding is vital for any effective governance strategy.
International Cooperation Challenges
The narrative of competition between the U.S. and China heavily influences AI governance discussions, complicating the prospects for international collaboration. Traditional forms of international agreements, such as binding treaties, seem unlikely due to low trust and appetite for cooperation among nations. Instead, there is potential for more informal coordination through shared information and best practices, as seen with the U.S. leading a non-binding declaration on the responsible use of AI in military contexts. Creative approaches that prioritize collaboration on technical challenges and risk assessments could pave the way for more meaningful international dialogue, even amidst geopolitical tensions.
Balancing Risks and Opportunities in AI
Although concerns about the risks of AI often dominate discussions, it is equally important to recognize the technology's potential benefits in addressing global challenges such as disease, hunger, and climate change. Framing discussions around 'existential hope' encourages a focus on envisioning positive futures that AI could help create, rather than solely mitigating risks. The future trajectory of AI will depend not only on how safe and reliable these systems become but also on how they are integrated into society. By balancing proactive safety measures with a vision of how AI can enhance everyday lives, stakeholders can work towards a more equitable and beneficial future.
Who makes the rules for AI? Right now, a handful of companies and governments are shaping its trajectory – but what happens behind closed doors?
Helen Toner, Director of Strategy at Georgetown’s CSET and former OpenAI board member, has been inside some of the biggest AI governance conversations. In this conversation with Beatrice Erkers, she shares an insider’s take on AI policy, US-China dynamics, and what’s coming next in AI regulation.
This interview is a guest lecture in our new online course about shaping positive futures with AI. The course is free, and available here: https://www.udemy.com/course/worldbuilding-hopeful-futures-with-ai/
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