The ECB Podcast Summer School #3: the role of banks in fighting inflation
Aug 18, 2023
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Banks' role in monetary policy decisions, pass-on of interest rate hikes, impact on loans and savings, effects on the real economy, outlook for European economy and managing demand explored by ECB Chief Economist and host Katie Ranger in the final episode of the Summer School mini-series.
Banks play a crucial role in transmitting monetary policy decisions by raising interest rates, which increases the rates at which they can lend from the ECB, creating a floor on lending rates.
Banks have generally passed on higher interest rates quickly to borrowers, making loans more expensive, but the increase in deposit rates, especially for time deposits, has taken more time and varies across European countries based on competitive pressures and loan demand.
Deep dives
The role of banks in monetary policy transmission
Banks play a crucial role in transmitting monetary policy decisions to the economy through lending and deposit rates. As the ECB raises interest rates, it increases the rates at which banks can deposit money or lend from the ECB, creating a floor on lending rates. However, banks do not charge the same rate as they receive; they add administration costs and risk margins. The connection between the ECB rate and bank loan rates is complex, as banks rely on various sources of funding like deposits and the bond market.
Passing on interest rate changes to borrowers and savers
Banks have generally passed on higher interest rates quickly to borrowers, making loans more expensive. However, the increase in deposit rates, especially for time deposits, has taken more time. Banks offer little interest on overnight accounts, but time deposits have seen noticeable increases, although it varies across European countries based on competitive pressures and loan demand. Those who are willing to commit their money for a longer period are starting to see visible interest rates again.
Impact of banks' behavior on the real economy
Banks' behavior during interest rate hikes has influenced the real economy. Loan demand decreases due to higher rates, and banks become more cautious about lending, considering increased risk. This can lead to decreased investment and flat consumption, affecting sectors like housing and related industries. However, the pandemic savings and government support for firms have provided buffers, reducing the risk of a deep recession. While the European economy is weak now, it is expected to recover over time, aided by the post-pandemic rebound, lower energy prices, and rising wages.
Banks are one of the main channels through which our monetary policy decisions reach the economy. How have they passed on our recent interest rate hikes? Has it been the same for loans as for savings? And what is the impact on people and firms?
Our host Katie Ranger and Chief Economist Philip R. Lane unpick these questions in the third and final episode of our Summer School mini-series.
The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Published on 18 August 2023 and recorded on 27 July 2023.
Additional material [to be added as a heading in SoundCloud]
The ECB Podcast Summer School #1: a deep dive into inflation – August 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230804_episode66.en.html
The ECB Podcast Summer School #2: the nuts and bolts of interest rates – August 2023
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230811_episode67.en.html
The ECB Podcast: are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html
Our monetary policy statement at a glance – July 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2023/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html
European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu
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