What Would a Second Trump Term Mean for Foreign Policy? | Interview: Eliot Cohen
Jul 22, 2024
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Eliot Cohen, a professor emeritus, discusses the impact of a potential second term for Trump on foreign policy, including concerns about NATO and nuclear proliferation. The conversation also covers relationships with China and Taiwan, as well as worries about J.D. Vance advising Trump.
A second Trump term may not drastically alter American foreign policy, according to Professor Eliot Cohen.
Maintaining alliances like NATO is crucial in preventing increased Russian influence and global nuclear proliferation.
Support for Taiwan is essential to counter strategic risks and prevent shifts towards Chinese influence.
Advisors play a vital role in shaping Trump's decisions, warranting a cautious approach in delicate geopolitical scenarios.
Deep dives
Reevaluating Trump's Foreign Policy Actions
Despite being a long-standing never-Trumper, Professor Elliot Cone proposes that a second term under Trump might not be as catastrophic as anticipated. He points out that Trump's platform and recent actions, like the aid package for Ukraine, do not signal extreme isolationism. Cone emphasizes the importance of considering the uncertainties in politics and the impact of the individuals surrounding Trump on potential outcomes.
Assessment of Trump's Foreign Policy Actions
Reflecting on Trump's first term, Cone acknowledges concerning actions like his transactional view of NATO but notes that the administration's policies towards China exhibit continuity with previous administrations. Noting positive outcomes like increased defense spending by European nations and Trump's role in the Abraham Accords, Cone highlights both positive and controversial aspects of Trump's foreign policy decisions.
Potential Threat to NATO and Consequences
Concerns arise regarding Trump's possible inclination to pull out of NATO, although the likelihood is uncertain. Cone presents the potential consequences of such an action, including increased Russian influence in Europe, heightened conflict risks, and a surge in global nuclear proliferation. The scenario underscores the significance of maintaining alliances and the grave implications of a NATO breakup.
Implications of Trump's Statements on Taiwan
Examining Trump's recent statements on Taiwan, Cone explores the implications of his stance on the region. He discusses the strategic importance of supporting Taiwan in potential conflicts with China, highlighting the economic impact and strategic risks involved. Cone underscores the need for consistent support to prevent Taiwan's strategic shift towards Chinese influence.
Investigating Trump's Influence on Taiwan Policy
Discussing Trump's potential influence on Taiwan policy, Cone analyzes the implications of aligning with Trump's views. He emphasizes the critical role of advisors in shaping Trump's decisions, particularly in delicate geopolitical scenarios. Cone suggests a cautious approach towards Trump's administration to influence policies effectively and mitigate adverse outcomes.
Evaluation of the Domestic Threat and Biden's Role
Amidst concerns of potential domestic threats under a Trump administration, including targeting political opponents, Cone underscores the significance of addressing these risks. Comparing Trump's international and domestic policies, Cone advocates for proactive measures to safeguard democracy against possible abuses of power. The discussion highlights the complex challenges faced by the Biden administration and the importance of protecting democratic norms.
Historical Perspective on Biden's Leadership
Delving into Biden's leadership, Cone reflects on the potential historical evaluations of Biden's actions. He contrasts scenarios of Biden stepping down versus remaining in office, discussing the implications on his legacy and the country's future trajectory. Cone underscores the delicate balance between personal ambitions and national interests in Biden's decision-making process.
Eliot Cohen, professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, thinks a second Trump term won’t have a dramatic effect on American foreign policy. He joins Jamie to debate this point, the risk of pulling out of NATO and abandoning allies, and whether America is bound to retreat from global affairs.
NOTE: This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19, 2024—two days before President Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t be running for reelection.
