Andy Constan, former Salomon Brothers member, discusses the impact of flows on market prices and shares episodes of disruptions in supply and demand. Topics include the April 2020 negative price in front-month crude caused by ETF flows and the 2010 blow-up in the long-dated SPX variance swap market. He also explores the market's ability to adjust to higher rates and the factors influencing Fed policy. Join the conversation with Andy Constan on this episode of Alpha Exchange.
Flows into or out of an asset can disrupt supply and demand equilibrium, leading to price shocks.
Mechanical ETF flows caused the April 2020 negative price in front-month crude.
The blow-up of the long-dated S&P variant swap market in 2010 resulted from an extreme imbalance in supply and demand.
Deep dives
Flows and disruptions in asset markets
The podcast episode explores episodes in which flows into or out of an asset disrupted the equilibrium of supply and demand, leading to shocking movements in price. Examples include the April 2020 negative price in front-month crude caused by mechanical ETF flows, and the blow-up of the long-dated S&P variant swap market in 2010 due to an extreme imbalance in supply and demand.
The work of Andy Constan at Damp Spring Advisors
Andy Constan discusses his role at Damp Spring Advisors, a research firm he founded in 2019. He focuses on the market's capacity to adjust to a regime of higher rates, factors that may impact quantitative tightening (QT), and the potential effects of Fed policy on money supply and tightening.
QT and the impact on liquidity
Quantitative Tightening (QT) is discussed in relation to the effects on asset prices and risk premiums. The impact of the Treasury's issuance to fund the maturity of bonds and the potential use of the RRP (reverse repo) program to finance the government are considered as factors that could mitigate the effects of QT.
The current economic outlook
The podcast addresses the current economic situation, highlighting the potential for a recession or major slowdown, as indicated by negative growth in GDP and the impact of inflation on interest rates and credit spreads. The importance of assessing inflation and growth outlooks for different asset classes is emphasized.
Investment opportunities and diversification
The importance of balancing investments, particularly in emerging markets like China, is discussed. The need for diversification to include assets with high-yielding government bonds and equity markets is highlighted, even though challenges such as market manipulation and changes in rules and regulations may exist in certain regions.
Market prices are impacted by a host of forces including changes in the economy, in earnings and in the stance of monetary policy. For Andy Constan, flows carry great import as well. Hitching a ride to Wall Street in 1986 at Salomon Brothers, Andy was part of a group that contributed to the Brady Commission Report, the post-mortem on the calamity that was the ’87 stock market crash. In this context, he shares his views on episodes in which flows into or out of an asset disrupted the equilibrium of supply and demand, leading to shocking movements in price. Among them, Andy describes the April 2020 negative price in front month crude, a short-lived but intense dislocation resulting from mechanical ETF flows. In furthering the discussion on liquidity, we explore the 2010 blow-up in the long dated SPX variance swap market, a trade that Andy ranks among the most attractive he has seen in his career, a result of an extreme imbalance in supply and demand. Our conversation then shifts to the present day of risk and the work that Andy is doing at Damped Spring Advisors, a research firm he founded in 2019. On his mind is the market’s capacity to adjust to a regime of higher rates, the factors that may leave QT more or less impactful and whether Fed policy ultimately leaves money tight or not. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Andy Constan.
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