Generating Alpha Podcast Episode 39: Jeff Yass - Founder and Managing Director of Susquehanna International Group
Oct 23, 2025
In a rare interview, Jeff Yass, founder of Susquehanna International Group and former professional poker player, delves into the transformative potential of prediction markets. He discusses how these markets can improve decision-making and expose political falsehoods, while also predicting their future role in reducing costs for insurance and hedging. Jeff highlights the psychological barriers to adoption and emphasizes the need for strong probability skills in education. With insights into market manipulation and operational decisions, his views meld finance with the art of gambling.
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Episode notes
Markets Reveal Objective Probabilities
- Prediction markets produce objective probability estimates that improve decision making.
- Jeff Yass argues they are the best known tool to surface accurate event probabilities.
Iraq War Cost Example
- Jeff uses the Iraq war cost estimates to show how markets could have revealed true costs earlier.
- He argues a market price would have exposed far higher expected costs and changed public pushback.
Markets Self-Protect From Manipulation
- Market manipulation is costly because manipulators must lose money to move prices against knowledgeable participants.
- Jeff believes deep liquidity and competitive bettors protect market integrity.