S3E6: Net Assessment as a Tool of Strategy: Andrew Marshall, with Dr Thomas G Mahnken
Mar 14, 2023
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Andrew Marshall, a legendary foreign policy strategist known as the 'grey cardinal' of US military affairs, is the focus of discussion with Dr. Thomas G Mahnken, an expert in strategic studies. They delve into Marshall's innovative methods of net assessment that revolutionized military thinking. The conversation covers how organization design shapes military strategy, the importance of diverse perspectives in assessment, and the Office of Net Assessment's influential role in military innovation. Their insights challenge conventional wisdom and underscore the complexities of modern strategic landscapes.
Andrew Marshall's interdisciplinary approach to net assessment revolutionized military strategy by combining quantitative and qualitative analyses of adversary capabilities.
His legacy as a strategic advisor highlights the importance of flexible thinking and informed decision-making amid the complexities of military competition.
Deep dives
The Legacy of Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is recognized as a significant figure in military strategy, particularly known for developing the concept of net assessment, which evaluates both one’s own and adversary capabilities. His influence extended over seven decades, including notable roles at the RAND Corporation and within the National Security Council. He was instrumental in shaping strategic thought during the Cold War, focusing on the long-term competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Marshall's analytical methods emphasized a deeper understanding of military balances by combining quantitative analysis with insights from history and organizational behavior.
The Multidisciplinary Approach to Strategy
Marshall's strategic insights were deeply rooted in a multidisciplinary approach, blending mathematics, history, and social sciences to address complex military interactions. His time at RAND, where he was exposed to innovative analytical techniques, contributed to this methodology and his understanding of military effectiveness. By recognizing the importance of various perspectives, including cultural and organizational dimensions, he sought to inform senior leaders on how to navigate an increasingly complex security landscape. Marshall's curiosity and openness to alternative viewpoints fostered a richer understanding of strategy beyond traditional models.
Influence and Adaptation in Military Thinking
Marshall's role as a strategic advisor evolved as he interacted with multiple U.S. Secretaries of Defense, shaping their understanding and approach to military strategy. His ability to communicate the complexities of military assessment fostered an environment in which senior leaders could make informed decisions amid uncertainty. The Office of Net Assessment, which he led, became a cornerstone for facilitating strategic discourse and innovation within the U.S. military framework. Marshall’s legacy lies in how he championed strategic thinking that embraced complexity and uncertainty, encouraging a flexible response to evolving security challenges.
Foreign policy strategist Andrew Marshall had a career that spanned seven decades from the late 1940s. He was hailed by a former KGB officer as ‘the grey cardinal, the éminence grise’ of the US revolution of military affairs, and as ‘the great hero’ of Chinese officers tracking developments in US military technology, claiming they had translated every word he wrote. Dr Thomas G Mahnken joins Talking Strategy to discuss his work and life.
Andrew Marshall spent 25 years at the RAND Corporation, which developed methods of analysing the nature of the long-term competition between the US and the Soviet Union. He was recruited by Henry Kissinger to apply these approaches in the National Security Council, and later became the first Director of Net Assessment, a post he held for the next 43 years. His special approach to strategic thinking was interdisciplinary, questioning everything – including past successes – and encouraging out-of-the box thinking.
This week’s guest, Dr Thomas G Mahnken, is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He is a Senior Research Professor at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and currently serves as a member of the congressionally mandated 2022 National Defense Strategy Commission and as a member of the Army Science Board.
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