This podcast episode discusses the Theta Engine update for Q1 2023, trading performance and market analysis in 2023, market drawdown and volatility spike, target return, credit target, and volatility drag, and drawing down, return targets, and all-time highs.
The Theta engine strategy has achieved impressive results with a win rate of 98.6% and a low drawdown of 0.4% in Q1-2023.
Market trends and volatility events, such as the SPX index movement and VIX spikes, have impacted the strategy, but it has shown resilience and recovered well.
Deep dives
Q1-2023 Update for the Theta Engine
The podcast episode provides a Q1-2023 update for the Theta engine strategy. Despite last year's difficulties, the strategy has reached a significant milestone, with the portfolio close to all-time highs. The 2023 trade log shows an impressive win rate of 98.6% and only one losing trade out of 70 so far. The longitudinal study, which combines all previous trade logs, highlights the strategy's low drawdown of 0.4%. Overall, the quarter has been marked by winners, with numerous profit takes signaling a successful period.
Analyzing Market Trends and Volatility Events
The podcast delves into market trends and volatility events that affected the Theta engine strategy. It analyzes the movement of the SPX index and the VIX volatility index during the quarter. A rapid drawdown occurred after a peak in early February, followed by a rally and subsequent bottoming out in mid-March. The VIX experienced spikes coinciding with key events, such as concerns in the SVB and banking sector. The book's reaction to the volatility event was evident, flipping from positive to negative positions. However, the strategy has recovered well with a rally in SPX and a drop in VIX since the bottom.
Approaching All-Time Highs and Volatility Drag
The podcast discusses the strategy's proximity to all-time highs and the concept of volatility drag. The book size reached its peak with around 35 positions and has now reduced to 19. The drawdown analysis shows that the strategy is about three trades away from reaching all-time highs when considering target returns and credit multiples. It demonstrates how a smaller account size and drawdown affect the time needed to recover to even levels. Additionally, the discussion highlights the need for a higher return percentage to offset losses incurred during drawdowns. Overall, the strategy is poised for an official celebration pending the closure of a few more trades.
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