Do any paths to peace still exist in the Middle East?
Nov 24, 2023
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Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer and other experts discuss the prospects for peace in the Middle East, including the two-state solution, the Oslo Accords, and alternative proposals like an Israeli-Palestinian Confederation. The podcast explores the challenges, opposition, and hopes for finding a resolution amidst ongoing conflict in Gaza, emphasizing the importance of trust, dialogue, and support from different countries.
Both sides need to rebuild trust and create a political horizon for a sustainable solution.
An interim administration under international mandate could facilitate rebuilding efforts in Gaza.
Building trust between Israelis and Palestinians is crucial for the success of any peace agreement.
Deep dives
The Challenges of Reaching a Two-State Solution
The podcast discusses the challenges of reaching a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Currently, there is distrust between the two sides and a lack of political will to make compromises. The Oslo Accords signed in 1993 were seen as a hopeful moment, but ultimately failed due to the lack of concrete agreements and Palestinian dissatisfaction with the limited autonomy offered. The status quo of the conflict leads to cycles of violence and a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. Both sides need to take steps to rebuild trust and create a political horizon for a sustainable solution.
The Question of Rebuilding Gaza
The focus of the current conflict is on Gaza, and the question of who would take responsibility for rebuilding the region after the fighting stops is raised. If Hamas remains in control, it is unlikely that rebuilding efforts would be successful, as Hamas would divert resources for its own purposes. Eradicating Hamas entirely is impractical, but limiting its military capability and command control might be possible. An interim administration under international mandate, with Palestinian technocrats managing day-to-day affairs, could be a solution. The Palestinian Authority needs revitalization and reform before being able to take over Gaza. The international community plays a crucial role in overseeing the transition period and ensuring rebuilding efforts.
The Need for Trust and Compromise
The lack of trust between the two sides is an obstacle to finding a solution. Palestinians feel disillusioned due to the occupation and lack of prospects, while Israelis fear the threat of violence and rejection. Both sides need to take accountability and make concessions. Palestinians must condemn actions like the October 7th attack, and Israelis should acknowledge Palestinian sovereignty and end settlement expansion. Building trust requires addressing aspirations, creating a sense of possibility, and offering a political horizon. Impartial mediators from the global South might encourage productive dialogue. However, the main responsibility still lies with the two parties involved in the conflict.
The Challenges of a One-State Solution
A one-state solution, where Israelis and Palestinians coexist in one state, is seen as impractical and not viable given the current dynamics of the conflict. The asymmetry in power and the lack of shared territorial and national identities make this solution difficult to achieve in the present context. While acknowledging the heterogeneity of some Middle Eastern states, it is argued that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict necessitates separate states to address national aspirations and ensure self-determination. A two-state solution, with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital and territorial adjustments based on the Clinton parameters, is considered a more viable option.
The Role of Trust and Political Will
Building trust between the two sides is crucial for the success of any peace agreement. This trust can be achieved through taking concrete steps and fulfilling commitments made during negotiations. The international community can play a supportive role in facilitating dialogue and maintaining pressure on both parties to honor their obligations. The lack of trust is linked to a lack of hope, and by creating a sense of possibility and addressing the core issues, such as settlement expansion and Palestinian sovereignty, progress can be made towards a sustainable solution.
As the war in Gaza continues, it may seem the worst possible time to revisit the idea of a permanent political resolution to the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict. US President Joe Biden however, says a two-state solution is still possible. So how realistic is that aspiration? If not two states, what alternatives are there and which country, if any, is trusted by both sides to broker a deal? Amidst the violence, is there any reason to hope?
Shaun Ley is joined by: Anshel Pfeffer, an Israeli journalist based in Jerusalem who writes for the Economist and the Israeli newspaper Haaretz; Tahani Mustafa, who is British-Palestinian and a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group; Dennis Ross, who was Middle East Envoy in Clinton administration and later served as Special Assistant to President Obama on his National Security Council.
Also featuring:
Danny Danon, Israeli member of the Knesset for the Likud party
Hiba Husseini, former Legal Adviser to the Palestinian Liberation Organisation and current chair of the Legal Committee to Final Status Negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.
Producer: Max Horberry and Ellen Otzen
(Photo: Olive tree outside Jerusalem's old city. Credit: Getty Images)
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