Wall Street Breakfast What will Powell say at Jackson Hole?
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Aug 17, 2025 The Fed chief's upcoming Jackson Hole speech sparks debates over potential interest rate cuts. Walmart's mixed earnings outlook raises questions about its future. Meanwhile, Meta is revamping its AI strategies yet again. Insights into Oppenheimer's sales forecasts highlight a competitive retail landscape. Political updates, including European leaders' engagements, add another layer to the current market dynamics.
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Powell Speech Could Decide September Cut
- Markets are focused on whether Powell will signal rate cuts at Jackson Hole rather than the symposium's broader theme.
- Recent mixed data makes a September cut a close call and shifts the Fed to a data-dependent stance.
Data Clash Leaves Easing Uncertain
- Weak payrolls pushed markets to price a 25bp September cut but hotter PPI has tempered dovish bets.
- The Fed's preferred core PCE could rise, making near-term easing less certain.
Markets May Be Too Confident On Cuts
- Some strategists warn markets are overly confident about rate cuts and terminal rates around 3%.
- If no September cut occurs, easing could stall near current higher rates instead of falling rapidly.