We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network BTC215: Global Macro and Bitcoin Q1 2025 w/ Luke Gromen (Bitcoin Podcast)
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Jan 1, 2025 
Luke Gromen, a macroeconomic expert and author of the FFTT newsletter, shares his insights on the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and global finance. He discusses the historical link between high federal receipts and recessions, the connection between stablecoins and T-bill demand, and how fiscal policy failures could elevate Bitcoin's importance. Gromen also explores potential U.S. dollar devaluation as a debt management strategy and the impact of global liquidity trends on Bitcoin adoption, all while emphasizing the shifting dynamics in international tariff negotiations.
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18% GDP Recession Threshold
- The US struggles to collect over 18% of GDP in taxes without triggering recessions.
- Recessions create a debt spiral: rising treasury yields, falling stocks, and economic decline.
Dollar and Debt Spiral
- A recession would increase the US deficit and trigger a sell-off in dollar-denominated assets.
- Foreigners holding a large amount of US debt would exacerbate the crisis.
Dollar Devaluation Inevitable
- Devaluing the dollar is the only way to manage US debt without causing a financial meltdown.
- Trump will likely prioritize the equity market, leading to dollar devaluation.