SOTS 2nd Hour: The Trump Trade, Bitcoin Bedlam, Big Box Office Weekend 11/22/24
Nov 22, 2024
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Stocks have been on a winning streak, despite some bumps in major tech names. Investors are re-strategizing as the Trump administration approaches. Bitcoin is making headlines, inching closer to that $100K milestone. Meanwhile, IMAX CEO shares insights on a blockbuster weekend with 'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' hitting theaters. The film industry seems poised for a major comeback, reflecting a shift in consumer habits and a return to the big screen.
The stock market reflects growing investor optimism post-election, with notable gains in mid-cap equities driven by favorable economic conditions.
Bitcoin's surge to record highs illustrates the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market and the growing interest in alternative investments.
Deep dives
Shifts in Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is witnessing a notable shift as stock prices rise, with the Dow recently experiencing its best day since November. The surge comes after positive economic indicators, including strong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which has buoyed investor confidence. This optimism reflects in the performance of several stocks, particularly in the retail sector, where companies like GAAP have raised sales outlooks amid market share growth. Meanwhile, the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market is highlighted by Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, closely approaching the significant $100,000 milestone.
Economic Data Impact on Consumer Confidence
Recent consumer sentiment data, specifically from the University of Michigan, displayed a decrease in overall consumer confidence, suggesting a cautious outlook among households. Although one-year inflation expectations remained steady, long-term inflation expectations ticked upward, potentially fueling concerns about economic stability. This suggests that while current conditions showed some resilience, expectations for the future are being tempered by inflationary concerns. Together, these dynamics could impact spending habits and investment decisions as consumers navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
The Dynamics of the MAG7 Stocks
There has been significant differentiation among the MAG7 stocks, showcasing a varied performance landscape. For instance, Alphabet's valuation has fallen to historic lows, contrasting sharply with Tesla’s resurgence, buoyed by positive market sentiment post-election. This indication of a broadening market performance is promising, as the average stock in the S&P 500 has outperformed the MAG7 since August. Investors are beginning to see earnings growth become more diversified across sectors rather than being solely concentrated in a few major players.
Future Projections and Sector Rotations
Investors are increasingly turning their attention to mid-cap equities, which provide strong earnings growth potential while being less exposed to tariff-related risks. The recent election has fostered an environment of optimism, particularly around potential tax cuts and deregulation that could benefit these stocks. Analysts project earnings growth of approximately 11% for the coming year, which could translate to comparable returns for investors. This pivot from larger cap stocks to mid-caps alongside interest in software companies highlights an evolving investment strategy amid shifting economic conditions.
Carl Quintanilla, Morgan Brennan and David Faber began the hour by breaking down another winning week for stocks, despite some volatility in the MAG7 names. Goldman’s senior equity strategist, Ben Snider, joined the group to discuss how investors have been positioning themselves ahead of the new Trump administration. Also in the mix: CNBC’s Dom Chu joined the hour looking at Bitcoin touching new record highs, getting closer to that $100K milestone. IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond closed out the hour with his thoughts on the huge movie weekend ahead, with ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ hitting theaters.