China’s Strategy in Global Power Transitions: Challenges in a Turbulent World — A panel discussion
Feb 24, 2025
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In a riveting panel, experts delve into China's evolving role in global dynamics, including its ties to Europe and the Ukraine conflict. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova highlights China's influence in the Baltic states amid geopolitical challenges. Dmytro Yefremov provides insights on China's foreign relations from a Ukrainian perspective. Qiang Liu discusses energy security and China's Green transition, while Klaus Larres examines the shifting alliances between China, Russia, and the West, emphasizing the intricacies at play in international relations.
The war in Ukraine has reshaped global power dynamics, prompting nations to reevaluate their security policies and alliances.
China's complex relationship with Russia is characterized by transactional interactions, with Beijing balancing its interests amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
As Ukraine looks to reconstruction, China's potential role as a contributor highlights both opportunities and challenges in its international relations.
Deep dives
The Evolving Global Order Post-Ukraine Invasion
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia has significantly altered the global order, prompting a re-evaluation of strategic priorities among major world powers. This conflict has unveiled vulnerabilities in international alliances, compelling nations to reassess their security policies and diplomatic relationships. The recent conversations between political leaders, such as those involving Trump and Putin, indicate a potential realignment that may have wide-ranging implications not only for Ukraine but also for Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Consequently, understanding how China fits into this new milieu is crucial as it may be affected by shifts in international power dynamics.
Baltic States' Concerns Amid Russian Aggression
The Baltic states, historically wary of Russian expansionism, face heightened risks due to evolving U.S. policies under President Trump, which seem to undermine existing trust in NATO. Such a shift creates uncertainty about collective defense initiatives, making these nations susceptible to potential Russian aggression. Moreover, the Baltics view China's relationship with Russia with caution, acknowledging China's support for narratives that downplay Russia's aggressive actions. As smaller states navigate this landscape, there is a growing recognition that local deterrence must rise within Europe to counteract any threats from the East.
China's Strategic Calculations and European Relations
China's relationship with Russia is complex and often viewed as transactional rather than a genuine alliance, reflecting differing motivations and strategic goals. As the war in Ukraine progresses, Beijing seeks to navigate tensions with the West while asserting its interests, aiming to leverage divisions within U.S. and European relationships. Recent international discourses, particularly at forums like the Munich Security Conference, suggest an evolving Chinese approach that may aim to position itself as a mediator or an independent voice in the conflict. This balancing act also serves China's broader ambitions to strengthen ties with Europe while contending with its own vulnerabilities.
China's Energy Strategy Amid Global Conflicts
The Russo-Ukrainian war has prompted China to reassess its energy security strategy, particularly as its dependence on Russian resources is scrutinized. While China continues to import significant volumes of energy from Russia, it has diversified its energy sources to reduce risks associated with geopolitical tensions. The shift towards renewables and electric vehicles is also contributing to a decrease in energy demand, leading Chinese firms to pursue opportunities in energy infrastructure and cooperation in reconstruction efforts post-conflict. This evolving energy strategy underscores China's intent to remain competitive in the face of global economic challenges while maintaining its leverage in international relations.
Chinese Involvement in Post-War Reconstruction
As the prospect of reconstruction in Ukraine emerges, China is positioned as a potential contributor despite historical skepticism towards its intentions. The immense scale of damage necessitates significant external investment and expertise, and Chinese firms are likely to target infrastructure projects that align with Beijing's broader economic interests. While there are concerns about how China is perceived in Ukraine and its previous support for Russia, pragmatic engagement may pave the way for cooperation in rebuilding efforts. Observers note that China may approach such involvement carefully, trying to ensure its contributions do not provoke political tensions or further complications in its relationship with Russia.
This week on Sinica: February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as I’ve done for the last two years, I moderated a panel organized by Vita Golod, a Ukrainian China scholar who happens to be here in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, at UNC as a visiting scholar. She’s worked tirelessly to promote awareness of the war, and I’m honored again to have been asked to moderate this panel.
The guests you'll hear from are:
Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University in Latvia. Fluent in Chinese, Russian, and English, she has collaborated with scholars like Kerry Brown of King’s College London and has done extensive work on China's role in Europe and beyond.
Dr. Dmytro Yefremov, Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy" in Ukraine. A board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, he specializes in China's foreign relations and has traveled extensively to China, providing firsthand insight into Ukraine's perspective on China's role in the war and beyond.
Dr. Qiang Liu, Director of the Energy Economics Division at the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics within the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He also serves as the Co-chair and Secretary-General of the Global Forum on Energy Security. His research focuses on energy security, energy economics, and policy, with a particular emphasis on China's Belt and Road Initiative and its global energy partnerships.
Dr. Klaus Larres, Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professor of History and International Affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. An expert on transatlantic relations, U.S., German, and EU foreign policy, and China's role in the post-Cold War order, he has a profound interest in the history of the Cold War and the politics of Winston Churchill.
