The podcast discusses the challenges faced by emerging markets, including higher bond yields and a stronger dollar. It also analyzes the impact of investor sentiment, inflation concerns, and the changing dynamics in emerging market investing. The chapter concludes with exploring the upside risks in the Chinese economy and highlighting preferred emerging markets.
Investors remain interested in E.M. assets but with reduced enthusiasm and more selectivity.
Inflation reduction in emerging markets will be challenging due to rising energy and food prices.
Deep dives
Challenges for Emerging Markets
Emerging markets have faced challenges over the past few months, including higher core bond yields, a stronger dollar, and China's slowing recovery. These challenges have impacted E.M. risk appetite, and investors have become more cautious. The global rates environment, a strong dollar, and reduced support from China have affected emerging market assets. However, investors still maintain a constructive outlook on emerging markets, and while they have reduced their enthusiasm, they remain interested in E.M. assets and are likely to be more selective in their investments.
Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Actions
Inflation is a concern for emerging markets, as headline inflation has fallen while core inflation remains high. The last bit of inflation reduction will be challenging due to rising energy and food prices. Some emerging market central banks have been cutting rates to stimulate the economy, but this poses a risk due to reduced yield and carry differentials, especially with high global rates from core central banks. Central banks and investors need to remain vigilant about potential inflationary pressures.
New Dynamics in Emerging Markets Investing
A new regime may be emerging in investing in emerging markets. In the past, emerging markets received substantial capital inflows, but in the current hangover decade, capital flows to emerging markets are weak. This decade is characterized by a challenging environment, including less favorable growth inflation mix, reduced support from China, high global rates, low global liquidity, and a strong US dollar. To navigate this new dynamic, investors need to focus on assets with solid fundamentals, a structural story, and sizable risk premium.