Rebel Capitalist News We Will Never Have A Recession Again
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Aug 5, 2025 Explore the intriguing idea that the U.S. may never officially declare a recession again, despite real economic hardships. The discussion reveals how political agendas can skew labor market data, highlighting a disconnect between official statistics and the everyday financial struggles Americans face. Delve into the implications of these economic narratives and what they mean for personal finances in a tumultuous world.
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Unemployment Rate Drives Recession Status
- The official recession determination depends heavily on the unemployment rate.
- NBER declares recessions mainly when unemployment spikes, showing its strong influence on recession status.
Low Unemployment Overrides GDP Recession
- Despite technical recession by GDP in 2022 Q1 and Q2, NBER did not declare a recession.
- This was because unemployment remained low, influencing their decision.
Stock Market and Real Economy Disconnect
- The stock market decouples from the real economy, sometimes inversely correlating.
- Worse economy can boost stocks due to expectations of rate cuts by the Fed.