The Rest Is Money 215. How Near Is An AI Crash?
71 snips
Oct 12, 2025 
Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, dives into the AI landscape’s potential bubble and its societal impacts. He discusses the valuation of AI firms like OpenAI, warning about inflated hype lacking real customer revenues. The conversation highlights how AI may favor experienced workers over newer talent and examines the energy demands of AI technologies. As U.S. job patterns shift, Azeem emphasizes the need for policy adjustments like retraining and welfare redesign to navigate the AI-driven future.
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Early Warning Missed Timing
- Robert Peston warned that spotting a bubble is easy but timing its burst is nearly impossible.
- He recalled urging BBC editors in 2006 to cover the housing bubble long before it actually popped in 2007.
Five Gauges To Detect Bubbles
- Azeem Azhar built a five-part framework to gauge bubbles from historical booms to today.
- The framework examines economic and industry strain, sales growth, valuations, and funding quality.
Public vs Private Valuation Gap
- Publicly listed AI-related firms generally show established revenues, while private rounds can command extreme valuations.
- Azhar noted some private deals lack business plans despite multibillion-dollar price tags.