The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series What Does a Post US NATO Look Like? || Peter Zeihan
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Oct 3, 2025 The discussion opens with insights on the US stepping back from NATO and its implications for Europe. France emerges as a potential leader with its military strengths and growing population. Poland's impressive demographic trends and defense advancements are highlighted, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict. The podcast also explores Scandinavia's stable and financially independent defense capabilities. Ultimately, France, Poland, and Sweden are identified as pivotal players in shaping Europe's future military landscape.
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Two Institutions Define Europe
- Europe is structured by two overlapping institutions: NATO for security and the EU for economics and finance.
- The EU's economic model is under strain due to demographic decline that undermines fiscal capacity.
Germany’s Demographic Drag
- Germany has been the EU's financial engine but faces demographic ageing that will weaken its fiscal role over the next decade.
- That decline forces a renegotiation of Europe's economic arrangements and fiscal burden-sharing.
France Fits A Military-Political Lead
- France is unlikely to underwrite continental welfare schemes but could lead a political-military grouping that fits its strengths.
- Its carrier, independent nuclear arsenal, and population growth make France the most consequential European power long-term.