Equity Mates Investing Podcast Signals for 2026: What Matters, What Doesn’t - Seb Mullins | Schroders
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Nov 20, 2025 Seb Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset and Fixed Income at Schroders Australia, dives into the macroeconomic landscape as we look towards 2026. He explores the potential for a hot US economy, the importance of US labor markets, and why Europe and emerging markets may be on the verge of a rebound. Mullins questions if the current AI boom is a bubble and highlights opportunities in gold as a hedge against inflation. With a focus on navigating volatility, he emphasizes the need for strategic asset allocation.
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Fiscal Policy Now Drives Markets
- Fiscal policy has replaced monetary policy as the primary driver of where money flows, tipping the balance from the invisible hand to visible government direction.
- This shift creates a more inflationary regime and changes investment winners toward government-backed sectors.
US May Stay Red‑Hot Into 2026
- Schroders expects the US economy to stay strong and may even run hot into 2026, supporting equities if growth and inflation remain moderate.
- That backdrop suggests reallocating some risk away from the US toward global opportunities beyond AI.
VCL Framework Shapes Decisions
- Schroders' VCL framework (Valuation, Cycle, Liquidity) structures asset decisions and balances timing versus value.
- Valuation signals long-run reward, cycle guides risk sizing, and liquidity/sentiment dictates tactical moves.
