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Lyn Alden: No Massive Boom or Bust Ahead? Recession Fears, Bitcoin vs Gold Price and the Debt Dilemma

184 snips
Sep 25, 2025
Guest
Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden, a renowned macro analyst and author of "Broken Money," shares her insights on the economy and asset allocation. She discusses the unlikely possibility of a severe recession under fiscal dominance and explores future mortgage rates, predicting they may remain structurally higher. Lyn offers a critical look at stablecoins, their growth potential, and the role of Bitcoin versus gold in solving debt issues. She is bullish on Bitcoin and select emerging markets but warns of risks like a potential slowdown in AI investments.
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INSIGHT

Fiscal Dominance And A K-Shaped Economy

  • The economy is in fiscal dominance: structural deficits act like ongoing stimulus even without a recession.
  • Private sector is sluggish, producing a two-speed K-shaped economy with embedded support from deficits.
INSIGHT

Recessions May Look Different Now

  • Recessions under fiscal dominance can look like emerging-market recessions: inflation stays higher while unemployment doesn't spike.
  • Misery index (inflation+unemployment) can rise without a classic developed-market labor collapse.
INSIGHT

Gradual Return To Fed Balance Sheet Growth

  • Expect gradual Fed balance sheet increases rather than dramatic pandemic-style QE, similar to the 2019 repo response.
  • The Fed will act quietly to plug liquidity plumbing leaks and buy T‑bills, not necessarily calling it QE.
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