Bloomberg Surveillance Market Focus Shifts from Taxes to Tariffs
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Jul 7, 2025 Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research at Barclays, sheds light on the health of banks and lending as earnings season approaches. He dives into how the market's focus has shifted from taxes to looming tariffs, creating uncertainty for businesses and investors alike. The discussion also touches on the implications of trade policies on various sectors and the distinct challenges that rising tariffs pose for small businesses. As tensions in Washington escalate, Rogoff provides valuable insights into navigating the current economic landscape.
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Market Valuation vs Sentiment
- Current market valuation seems high versus fundamentals but aligns with sentiment recovery since April.
- Optimistic forecast models suggest higher S&P targets but baseline estimates show more modest levels.
Capex Optimism vs Reality
- Investors expect increased capital expenditures, but surveys like Duke CFO cast doubt on near-term spending.
- This capex optimism versus caution mismatch will be clarified in upcoming earnings reports.
Changing Canadian Investor Sentiment
- Canadian investors show less hostility toward tariffs and more interest in productivity and AI recently.
- Political and economic attitudes in Canada have shifted from tariff negativity to broader productivity discussions.