The Science of Hitting's Alex Morris dissects "Letting Winners Run" philosophy and strategy

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Feb 7, 2024

Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, discusses the 'Letting Winners Run' strategy, exploring hindsight bias, cash flow considerations, examples of timeless businesses, the role of management, position sizing, and dismissing banks as a source of letting winners run.

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Introduction

00:00 • 2min

Letting Winners Run: The Coffee Can Portfolio and Large Positions

02:23 • 8min

Exploring the Complexity of Investment Decision-Making

10:05 • 3min

Letting Winners Run in Investment Strategies

13:31 • 7min

Choosing Winners and the Role of Management

20:21 • 23min

Position Sizing and Investing in Banks

43:17 • 4min

Investing in Financials: Opportunities and Challenges

47:35 • 7min

Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the fourth time to discuss his recent article, "Letting Winners Run."

For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/ You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing

"Letting Winners Run" article: https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/letting-winners-run

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[1:47] Letting winners run thesis

[6:23] Hindsight bias

[8:26] Cash flow considerations

[12:07] Selection bias

[14:36] Examples of the "Letting Winners Run" strategy (forever business vs. 5-year/20-year outlooks)

[18:55] How "Forever Business" in media has changed over the years

[21:46] Management

[26:07] Is there something unique about big tech

[29:08] Thesis drift + examples

[38:03] Knowing when to sell "forever business"

[41:56] "Beautiful Sunset" principle

[45:27] Dismissing banks an example of dismissing "letting winners run"

[51:06] Why "Best Ideas Funds" fall short

[53:40] Final thoughts and closing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense

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