Bloomberg Surveillance Markets Aim to Rally on Calming News and Data
Jun 26, 2025
Tony Crescenzi, an Executive VP and Market Strategist at PIMCO, discusses the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts and their implications on bond markets. He explains how shifting economic data influences portfolio allocation strategies. Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chairman at Churchill Asset Management, shares his insights on private equity's increasing optimism and the risks associated with the rapidly evolving credit market. The two guests highlight the need for cautious investment as they navigate the dynamic landscape of financial opportunities.
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Five-Year Note as Key Indicator
- The five-year Treasury note serves as a 'long bond' of the short end and is sensitive to Fed moves.
- Yields may plunge in coming months due to expected weaker employment and other factors.
Bond Yield Strategy Advice
- Investors should embrace bonds with 5% to 7% yields combining credit and safety.
- Overweight mortgage-backed securities for yield advantage and avoid high-yield risks when uncertain.
Immigration and Labor Market Tightening
- The economy is expected to slow to 1.5% GDP growth, not signaling a recession.
- Immigration flow reduction will tighten labor markets, especially in blue-collar industries.