The Predictive Model of Elections

A unique predictive model for U.S. elections, developed by historian Alan Lichtman, relies on 13 specific keys that evaluate the performance and strength of the ruling party rather than polling data. Lichtman defines that if six or more of these keys go against the incumbent party, they are predicted to lose. Over four decades, this model has yielded overwhelmingly accurate predictions, including the landmark re-election of Ronald Reagan amidst unfavorable conditions. As Lichtman emphasizes, the model reveals that effective governance is pivotal in determining election outcomes, underscoring the importance of substance over superficial campaigning.