The Story
The historian who picked nearly every winner calls the US election
Sep 30, 2024
Professor Allan Lichtman, a renowned historian and author of "Predicting the Next President," shares insights from his 40-year career in election forecasting. He unveils his unique prediction model inspired by historical patterns and critical indicators. The discussion delves into the impact of economic factors, like inflation, on electoral outcomes, highlighting how governance shapes voters' perceptions. Lichtman emphasizes the role of social unrest and candidate charisma, ultimately predicting what's next for Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 election.
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Quick takeaways
- Professor Allan Lichtman's predictive model, based on 13 specific keys, highlights effective governance as critical for determining election outcomes.
- Lichtman's analysis suggests that Kamala Harris is positioned to be the next U.S. president due to favorable political conditions and party unity.
Deep dives
The Predictive Model of Elections
A unique predictive model for U.S. elections, developed by historian Alan Lichtman, relies on 13 specific keys that evaluate the performance and strength of the ruling party rather than polling data. Lichtman defines that if six or more of these keys go against the incumbent party, they are predicted to lose. Over four decades, this model has yielded overwhelmingly accurate predictions, including the landmark re-election of Ronald Reagan amidst unfavorable conditions. As Lichtman emphasizes, the model reveals that effective governance is pivotal in determining election outcomes, underscoring the importance of substance over superficial campaigning.
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