Lyman Stone, a demographer and future PhD in sociology, discusses the pressing issue of declining fertility rates in the U.S. and worldwide. He highlights how increased ages for marriage and first birth since 2008 have contributed to a fertility crash, countering the myth that it solely results from decreasing teen births. Stone also examines global patterns, emphasizing the striking gap between desired and actual family sizes in Africa. The conversation sheds light on the interplay of economic factors, cultural beliefs, and the implications for future societal dynamics.
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insights INSIGHT
Global Fertility Decline
Global fertility rates are declining, with some East Asian countries like South Korea experiencing extremely low rates.
This trend is often disconnected from traditional modernization theories, as declines occur even in low-income, less-educated populations.
insights INSIGHT
East Asian Fertility Decline
East Asia's low fertility may be due to factors like intense educational norms, small living spaces, and extended family structures.
These create disincentives for having children and limit opportunities for young couples.
insights INSIGHT
US Fertility Trends
The US may be following a similar path as East Asia, with young people delaying independence and prioritizing education.
This extended parental support increases the perceived cost of raising children.
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Published in 1968, 'The Population Bomb' by Paul and Anne Ehrlich predicts catastrophic consequences, including mass starvation and environmental ruin, due to unchecked population growth. The book argues that immediate action is necessary to control population growth to prevent these dire outcomes. Although many of the Ehrlichs' predictions did not come to pass, the book significantly raised awareness about population and environmental issues and influenced public policy in the 1960s and 1970s. The authors emphasize the need for conscious regulation of human numbers and highlight the strain that growing populations place on the natural world[1][4][5].
On this episode of Unsupervised Learning Razib talks to Lyman Stone, a soon to be PhD in sociology from McGill University specializing in population dynamics. Stone runs the Pro-natalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, and has had appointments at AEI, and has written for The Atlantic and The New York Times. Well known for his social media presence, Stone is a published academic who has explored COVID policies, religion and divorce rates. Stone has previously been on Unsupervised Learning to discuss his work on religion, but this episode they shiftto his bread and butter: demographics and the preconditions for a pro-natalist society.
First, Razib and Stone discuss the variables behind the fertility crash in the USA since 2008, and Stone debunks the notion that it is driven purely by decline in teen births. Despite the reality that teen births have dropped, disproportionately among Hispanics, Stone notes that since 2008 there has been an increase in both the age of first birth and age of marriage, resulting in reduced lifetime fertility. Stone also addresses worldwide patterns, and notes that aside from Niger almost the whole of Africa seems to have been impacted by the demographic transition that is leading to reduced fertility on other continents. He does note that the gap between the number of children women want, and the number they have, is particularly large in Africa. Razib and Stone also discuss the fiscal/monetary rationales for reduced fertility, as well as social and cultural changes. They also discuss the genetics and heritability of pro-natal dispositions, concluding that the changes we see in total fertility rate are driven by cultural change.
Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning 