Science, Policy & a Green Recovery: The Economics of a Green Recovery
Oct 16, 2020
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University of Cambridge economists Dr Kamiar Mohaddes and Dr Nina Seega discuss the macroeconomic shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory of recovery investments, and how policymakers can respond to the need to invest to meet climate change commitments. They explore forecasted impacts of the pandemic on the global economy, challenges and opportunities for investing in a green economy, the economic costs of climate change, and messages for policymakers on prioritizing a green recovery.
The COVID-19 pandemic will have varying impacts on different economies, necessitating comprehensive and coordinated cross-country responses to manage risks and meet climate change commitments.
A green recovery is essential to avoid future crises, and policymakers should prioritize clear policy interventions, recovery funding tied to sustainable targets, and the creation of green jobs.
Deep dives
Macroeconomic shock from the COVID pandemic and its implications for a green recovery
The podcast episode discusses the macroeconomic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its relationship to arguments for investment in a green recovery. The analysis of the shock was based on IMF forecast revisions, examining the specific impacts on different countries. The researchers found that the pandemic would reduce real GDP by around 3% globally, with varying impacts on different economies. While China and other emerging Asian economies are expected to be less affected, the US, the UK, and several advanced economies will experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. It was also highlighted that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic due to global interconnections. The researchers suggested that policymakers need to manage the risks and understand the importance of comprehensive and coordinated cross-country responses to both the pandemic and future climate change-related risks.
The case for a green recovery
The podcast episode explores the potential for a green recovery amid the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The discussion highlights how the pandemic served as a climate stress test, revealing vulnerabilities in certain industries like fossil fuels and airlines, while also demonstrating the resilience of sustainable companies. The evidence suggests that a transition to a sustainable, net-zero economy is crucial to avoid future crises. However, it was acknowledged that policymakers face the immediate dilemma of addressing short-term challenges and job creation. The conversation emphasized the need for clear policy interventions and tying recovery funding to sustainable targets to ensure long-term environmental and economic benefits.
Challenges and opportunities for policymakers
The podcast episode concludes with insights and advice for policymakers navigating the current economic crisis and the imperative of a green recovery. The discussion underscores the importance of addressing climate-related financial risks and the interconnectedness of global economies. It highlights the need for investment in green jobs and a new normal that prioritizes sustainability rather than returning to pre-pandemic norms. The potential benefits of a green fiscal multiplier and the outperformance of sustainable companies during the crisis are also emphasized. The conversation emphasizes the need for collaboration and coordinated efforts among countries to achieve a sustainable future and address social factors like just transition. Overall, the episode provides practical recommendations, including tying recovery funding to green and sustainable targets, managing climate and nature-related risks, and harnessing technological transformations for a sustainable future.
Are we 'on track' to invest in a green recovery? In the second episode of our new series on Science, Policy & a Green Recovery, Dr Rob Doubleday is joined by University of Cambridge economists Dr Kamiar Mohaddes and Dr Nina Seega. Throughout the episode, they explore the macroeconomic shock from the covid-19 pandemic, the current trajectory of recovery investments, and how policymakers can respond to the need to invest to meet climate change commitments.
This series is produced in partnership with Cambridge Zero.
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CSaP: The Science & Policy Podcast is hosted by CSaP Executive Director Dr Rob Doubleday, and is edited and produced by CSaP Communications Coordinator Kate McNeil. If you have questions you would like us to address in a future week, please email enquiries@csap.cam.ac.uk. Music and sound effects used in this season of CSaP: The Science & Policy Podcast are courtesy of FreeSound.org. This episode features sound effects from PannChie and smacks999.
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