Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 3rd, 2025
Sep 3, 2025
Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler, delves into the latest U.S. labor market trends and economic growth drivers, highlighting the role of private sector job creation. Mark Cabana, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Bank of America, discusses interest rate forecasts and the impact of monetary policy on investment strategies. They explore the evolving dynamics of technological innovation in economic analysis and the potential effects of AI on various sectors, especially retail, signaling a transformative shift in market operations.
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Labor Market Is Cooling Noticeably
- Nancy Lazar argues payrolls are slowing and household survey shows no employment growth over 12 months.
- She says payroll revisions and QCEW will make payrolls look more like household data, signaling a clear labor-market downshift.
Profits Precede Hiring
- Lazar highlights that corporate profits must rebound before broad hiring resumes and profits already hit record highs in 2Q.
Limit Cuts To Avoid Rekindling Inflation
- Nancy Lazar expects modest policy action: one Fed cut in 2026 could be healthy, but multiple cuts risk higher inflation later in 2026.
- She warns against too-aggressive rate easing that would undercut nominal growth control.