Eric Balchunas & James Seyffart: The Race for a Winning Spot Bitcoin ETF
Jan 8, 2024
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Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, and James Seyffart, Bloomberg Intelligence research analyst, discuss the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, the competition in the market, and the creation/redemption process. They explore the differences between owning Bitcoin and owning a Spot Bitcoin ETF. The podcast also covers the progress of spot Bitcoin ETF applications, the government's role in custodian selection, the involvement of JP Morgan in Bitcoin ETFs, and the impact of BlackRock and Fidelity on the space.
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs is expected soon, with one dominant ETF likely to take the majority of liquidity.
The use of cash create for Bitcoin ETFs instead of in-kind redemptions raises concerns but is based on practical considerations and regulatory limitations.
Multiple custodians may be used in the future for Bitcoin ETFs to enhance diversification and the creation/redemption process could move towards in-kind transactions.
Deep dives
The Road to a Bitcoin ETF
The podcast episode discusses the journey towards the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The hosts explain that ETFs are becoming increasingly popular due to their low cost, tax efficiency, and convenience. The SEC has received applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs and expects to approve several of them soon. The episode explores the reasons why ETFs have grown in popularity in recent years, including their efficiency, standardized trading, and the rise of fee-based advisors. The hosts also discuss the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on the market, predicting that there will likely be one dominant ETF with the majority of liquidity, while other competitors may struggle to gain traction.
The In-Kind Redemption Controversy
One of the main points of discussion in the podcast is the use of cash create for the Bitcoin ETFs instead of in-kind redemptions, where the ETF issuer would purchase and hold Bitcoin. This decision by the SEC has raised concerns about counterparty risk, anti-money laundering regulations, and the involvement of brokers and traders in the Bitcoin market. However, the hosts explain that cash create is already used in hundreds of ETFs, and that the SEC's decision is based on practical considerations and regulatory limitations. They highlight the role of authorized participants (APs) in creating and redeeming ETF shares, and emphasize that ETFs are backed by physical assets, including Bitcoin.
Seeding the Funds and Potential Buying Pressure
The podcast also addresses the initial seeding of the Bitcoin ETFs and the potential buying pressure on Bitcoin. While some ETF issuers have announced relatively small initial seed investments, it is noted that they may have additional assets waiting to be invested once the ETFs are approved. For example, BlackRock's $10 million initial seed investment may be followed by additional funding. The hosts speculate that other issuers may have significant assets ready to deploy once the ETFs launch. This influx of funds into Bitcoin could potentially drive up the price and create a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. However, it is also mentioned that the actual impact on the market will depend on the specific flow of investments and the overall market conditions at the time of the ETF launches.
Differentiation in the Bitcoin ETF Market
The podcast discusses how various issuers in the Bitcoin ETF market are likely to differentiate themselves. Some issuers may focus on being crypto-first companies, while others may leverage trusted names like BlackRock and Fidelity. Differentiation could also occur through enhanced transparency, such as offering proof of reserves. The speakers anticipate a winner-takes-most scenario, with a few dominant ETFs capturing the majority of the market, while others cater to specific investor segments.
Custodians and Creation/Redemption Process
The podcast explores the role of custodians and the creation/redemption process in Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase emerges as the prominent custodian choice, followed by Gemini, BitGo, and Fidelity's subsidiary. However, the speakers predict that multiple custodians may be used in the future to enhance diversification. The creation/redemption process, although currently cash-based, could move towards in-kind transactions. The speakers highlight the convenience and accessibility of Bitcoin ETFs, which allow mainstream investors to gain exposure to the asset class through traditional financial channels.
In this episode with Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart we discuss:
Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals by the SEC
How with the Spot Bitcoin ETFs compete?
Will one Spot Bitcoin ETF take majority of market share?
How does the creation/redemption process work?
Why did SEC want cash vs. in-kind redemptions?
Is Spot Bitcoin ETF the same as owning Bitcoin?
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Eric Balchunas is an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence focused on exchange-traded funds, writes research for Bloomberg Terminal, and is one of the creators and hosts of the Bloomberg TV series "Bloomberg ETF IQ" and the podcast "Trillions." He's also the author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox" & "The Bogle Effect.” Eric has a Bachelor's degree in journalism and environmental economics from Rutgers University. Follow Eric on X/Twitter at https://x.com/EricBalchunas
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James Seyffart is a research analyst within Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg LP's Research Department), focusing on the broader asset management industry with specialized expertise in the coverage of ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Hedge Funds. And he has experience researching cryptocurrencies and digital assets. He has a Bachelor's degree in Finance and Accounting from The College Of New Jersey (TCNJ). Follow James on X/Twitter at https://x.com/jseyff
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