The Weekly Take from CBRE Into the Mystic: WSJ’s ‘most accurate forecaster’ on where the economy is headed [encore - 06.10.24]
Dec 30, 2024
Belinda Román, 2023's most accurate economic forecaster and Associate Professor at St. Mary’s University, joins Dennis Schoenmaker, global co-head of forecasting at CBRE. They discuss the balance between data and qualitative insights in economic forecasting. Román predicts 3% GDP growth while Schoenmaker forecasts 2%. They explore the role of AI in enhancing commercial real estate predictions and the significance of labor dynamics amidst geopolitical changes. Their insights highlight the complexity and opportunities within the evolving economic landscape.
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Qualitative Work
- Qualitative work is crucial for accurate economic forecasting.
- Listening to people and observing real-world situations helps interpret economic data.
On-the-Ground Research
- Belinda Román drives around, observes businesses, and talks to people to understand economic realities.
- She gathers on-the-ground information to compare with her forecast numbers.
Local Knowledge
- CBRE Econometric Advisors uses local knowledge to improve their short-term models.
- Information like a fully leased building coming onto the market enhances their forecasts.