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The Weekly Take from CBRE
Into the Mystic: WSJ’s ‘most accurate forecaster’ on where the economy is headed [encore - 06.10.24]
Dec 30, 2024
Belinda Román, 2023's most accurate economic forecaster and Associate Professor at St. Mary’s University, joins Dennis Schoenmaker, global co-head of forecasting at CBRE. They discuss the balance between data and qualitative insights in economic forecasting. Román predicts 3% GDP growth while Schoenmaker forecasts 2%. They explore the role of AI in enhancing commercial real estate predictions and the significance of labor dynamics amidst geopolitical changes. Their insights highlight the complexity and opportunities within the evolving economic landscape.
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Quick takeaways
- Qualitative insights are essential in economic forecasting, as they provide context to quantitative data and reflect real-world conditions.
- The integration of advanced technologies like AI in forecasting enhances model accuracy and helps bridge information gaps in commercial real estate.
Deep dives
The Importance of Qualitative Insights in Economic Forecasting
Qualitative insights play a crucial role in effective economic forecasting, as emphasized by the leading forecaster recognized by The Wall Street Journal. Analyzing numbers requires grounding them with real-world observations to understand whether they accurately reflect current economic conditions. Engaging with various stakeholders, from shopkeepers to business leaders, provides context that complements quantitative data. This qualitative focus helps forecasters ensure their predictions align with the realities faced by those operating in the economy.
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