In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 117: Security Politics and the President Who Can't Change His Spots

Oct 8, 2023

The podcast discusses the pressure on the Russian police, the National Guard entering the mercenary game, and the reformation of Wagner under Prigozhin's son. It explores the challenges faced by police officers in Russia, Putin's false narrative and performative expression of power, and the potential successor to Putin. The episode also touches on Roskavyadya's move into the mercenary business and speculations on Wagner's fate.

46:01

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Quick takeaways

The shortage of police officers in Russia has led to a resurgence of corruption and abusive policing practices, undermining progress made in addressing corruption within the police force and eroding public trust.

Amidst discussions about the shortage of police officers, tensions within the security apparatus and conflicting interests are playing out, with potential implications for the future of Wagner and the emergence of Dmitri Kozak as a potential successor to Putin.

Deep dives

Police shortage and its impact on crime rates

The Interior Minister of Russia, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, highlighted the critical shortage of police officers in the country, leading to a negative impact on crime rates and overall police performance. The shortage is a result of a massive outflow of officers and a lack of new recruits. Police officers feel overstretched and underpaid, despite a recent pay increase. Some regions already face understaffing as high as 30%. The staffing levels in the Ministry of Internal Affairs have steadily decreased, falling to their lowest level since 2012. This shortage is exacerbated by the purge of officers deemed pro-opposition and the increased focus on investigating anti-war sentiment and spreading fake news.

Introduction

3min

Challenges Faced by Police Officers in Russia

11min

Roskavadya's Move into the Mercenary Business and Speculations on Wagner's Fate

6min

Putin's False Narrative and Performative Expression of Power

13min

Internal Struggles in Russian Security Apparatus and a Potential Successor

3min

The Potential Compromise Candidate

11min

The Russian police are increasingly under pressure. The National Guard is getting into the mercenary game. There is talk (probably empty) of Wagner being reconstituted under Evgeny Prigozhin's son Pavel. These three apparently separate developments all point to the way Putin is not learning the lessons of past mistakes.

In the second segment, another profile of a potential successor to Putin: the fixer-technocrat with the 'Cheshire Cat' smile, Dmitri Kozak.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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