On the verge of an invasion of Rafah, is a ceasefire possible?
May 7, 2024
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Middle East correspondent for The Economist, Gregg Carlstrom, discusses the potential ceasefire in Rafah amidst Israeli airstrikes and tank movements. The podcast explores the delicate balance of ceasefire negotiations, internal dilemmas in Netanyahu's government, international pressure on Israel, and escalating tensions in Rafah.
Rafah faces imminent threat of Israeli invasion, raising concerns for civilian safety and aid distribution.
Internal political tensions within Israeli government influence ceasefire negotiations and strategic decisions, impacting diplomatic relationships.
Deep dives
Israeli Airstrikes and Ground Invasion in Rafah
Israeli airstrikes are targeting the southernmost city in Gaza, Rafa, with tanks entering the outskirts, threatening a ground invasion. Rafa, once a safe haven for fleeing Palestinians, faced evacuations amid ongoing airstrikes. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the north, highlights the urgent need for aid distribution. Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas show uncertainty, with internal and international pressures shaping the outcomes.
Internal Government Division and Ceasefire Proposals
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces internal government divides over a ceasefire proposal. The war cabinet leans towards a deal to halt further strategic escalation, while the right-wing coalition advocates for military action. Netanyahu's political considerations drive his stance on ceasefire negotiations, potentially impacting the fate of remaining hostages and diplomatic relations with international partners.
International Pressure and Likelihood of Ground Invasion
International pressure mounts on Israel, with rhetorical calls for ceasefire but limited tangible consequences. The United States remains a crucial ally to Israel, notwithstanding growing frustrations with Netanyahu's policies. As airstrikes intensify in Rafah, the prospect of a ground invasion looms, with concerns over civilian casualties and the lack of a sustainable resolution in the ongoing conflict.