Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research and author of "Geopolitical Alpha," shares his insights on the evolving geopolitical landscape. He discusses the shift from U.S. exceptionalism to a multipolar world, examining the complexities of global power dynamics. Marko highlights significant geopolitical flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East and Taiwan, and their implications for investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of understanding historical contexts and adopting a long-term view in asset allocation while navigating market volatility.
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insights INSIGHT
Geopolitics Impact Timing
Geopolitical events rarely have sustained short-term market impacts.
Geopolitics is crucial over longer horizons for identifying investment winners and losers.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Fade Initial Geopolitical Reactions
Trade geopolitical events by betting against initial market reactions.
Opportunities to counteract risk premiums vary widely depending on the event.
insights INSIGHT
Focus Beyond First-Order Effects
First-order effects of geopolitical events rarely drive markets.
Second and third-order effects, especially policy reactions, are most market relevant.
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Interview recorded - 3rd of July, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of welcoming back Marko Papic. Marko is chief strategist at at BCA Research. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.During our conversation we spoke about Marko's current thoughts on the geopolitical landscape, his framework, trading geopolitics, current flashpoints and impact on the markets. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:33 - Geopolitical framework5:58 - Trading geopolitics13:45 - Trump & Putin16:52 - Geopolitics the past 10 years27:03 - Russia, Middle East & Taiwan40:21 - Impact on markets?Marko is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.At BCA, Marko leads the firm’s premier service, BCA Access, that allows clients to unlock access to custom research and the vast expert network that BCA has cultivated over its 76 year history.Previously, Marko was a partner at an alternative asset management firm in California where he provided his investors and clients with controversial market calls, bold views, and around-the-clock research. He helped seed global macro hedge funds and curate several funds, across public and private markets. His work on incorporating geopolitics into the asset management industry has become part of the CAIA curriculum.Born in Belgrade, Serbia, he has lived in Iraq, Jordan, Switzerland, Canada, and the U.S. He has lectured at the top universities and you’ll frequently see him in global news media.Marko Papic - X - https://x.com/Geo_papicResearch - https://www.bcaresearch.com/Geopolitical Alpha - https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/Geopolitical Cousins - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-cousins/id1802258017WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseasThumbnail image from - https://www.vecteezy.com/photo/55370299-abstract-digital-world-map-illuminated-with-red-lines-and-nodes-showcasing-global-connectivity
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