120 - The Forced Friendship: Russia's Uneasy Alliance with China
May 4, 2024
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Discover the evolving China-Russia relationship amidst the Ukraine conflict, the complex alliance filled with historical disputes and suspicions, Russia's pivot to China for gas trade post-sanctions, the strategic evolution of their gas partnership, trade dynamics with China dominating industries, China's goals in Central Asia, and Russia's economic struggles and dependence on China.
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Quick takeaways
Russia's reliance on China for economic support poses challenges to its autonomy and national interest.
China's strategic economic maneuvers exploit Russia's vulnerabilities and cement a one-sided dependence.
China's growing dominance in the region shifts power dynamics in the Russia-China relationship, affecting long-term interests.
Deep dives
Russia-China Relationship: History and Betrayals
Despite historical friendship potentials dating back to 1958, the Russia-China relationship is noted as both complex and precarious. From energy resources to joint naval fleet discussions, the facade of friendship is often tested by power dynamics and national ego. Past betrayals like Khrushchev's humiliation in Mao's swimming pool illustrate the persistent undercurrents of rivalry within their communist superpower alliance.
Economic Dependency Dynamics
China's growing economic autonomy exerts pressure on Russia within their trade relationship, shifting from allies to essential partners. Russia's increasing reliance on China, evident in arms sales and energy deals at discounted rates, portrays a one-sided dependence. As China navigates its options beyond Russia, the lopsided economic interdependence exposes Russia to vulnerability and pricing pressures.
Infrastructure Challenges and Economic Exploitation
Infrastructure limitations hinder Russian resource export diversification and elevate transportation costs. China's strategic economic maneuvers capitalize on Russia's predicament, demanding steep discounts on natural gas sales. This predatory economic stance extends beyond the oil and gas sector, signaling an endemic issue affecting multiple sectors and cementing a long-term Russia-China economic alliance.
China's Strategy in Ukraine Conflict
China's approach in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine involves managing the situation to prevent economic collapse in Moscow and avoid escalating conflict leading to nuclear threats by Putin. Beijing benefits from the conflict as it weakens US and NATO focus on the Indo-Pacific while providing discounted resources. By maintaining a low urgency for resolution, China's economic ties with Russia strengthen.
Russia-China Relationship Shift
The Russia-China relationship faces changes as China's economic power increases in the region. China's strategic maneuvers, such as investment dominance in coal and automotive industries in Russia, showcase economic leverage over Russia. The possibility of China signing deals beneficial to its short-term interests rather than long-term investments indicates a shift in power dynamics in the region.
As economic sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Russia, the nation is forced to seek assistance from whoever it can, turning to China not out of mutual interest but as a necessity. Yet, this support comes at a steep price, heightening concerns in Moscow that it's inadvertently solidifying a new, skewed power dynamic. As China capitalizes on Russia's vulnerabilities, one has to wonder if this is merely business or if there's a deeper play to settle historical grievances. Can Russia untangle itself from this precarious alliance? What are the obstacles in broadening their so-called "no-limits" friendship, and what implications will these have on future Sino-Russian energy deals? We ask our panel of experts:
On the panel this week:
- Keir Giles (Chatham House)
- Gavin Wilde (CEIP)
- Temur Umarov (CEIP)
Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 04:07
PART 2 - 23:47
PART 3 - 38:47
Outro - 58:10
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