Big Take What Economists Talk About When They Talk About AI
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Feb 5, 2025 
Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, brings a wealth of knowledge on the economic implications of artificial intelligence. He discusses three potential scenarios for AI's impact on the global economy, ranging from optimistic shifts to dystopian outcomes. The conversation dives into how competition, particularly from China's DeepSeek, is reshaping the landscape. Orlik also tackles the complex relationship between AI and productivity, exploring challenges in measuring its effects and the potential repercussions on the workforce and societal inequality.
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Measuring Productivity's Challenge
- Measuring productivity is complex, calculated as a residual after accounting for labor and capital.
- AI's impact is hard to isolate in real-time due to revisions and the time needed for tech to diffuse.
Technology's Slow Impact
- New technologies take time to impact productivity, like computers initially not showing gains.
- Widespread benefits take decades, with early gains often unevenly distributed among workers.
Solow's Computer Paradox
- Robert Solow noted computers weren't reflected in productivity data until a decade later.
- While technologies eventually benefit everyone, initial gains aren't always broadly shared.