What Economists Talk About When They Talk About AI
Feb 5, 2025
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Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, brings a wealth of knowledge on the economic implications of artificial intelligence. He discusses three potential scenarios for AI's impact on the global economy, ranging from optimistic shifts to dystopian outcomes. The conversation dives into how competition, particularly from China's DeepSeek, is reshaping the landscape. Orlik also tackles the complex relationship between AI and productivity, exploring challenges in measuring its effects and the potential repercussions on the workforce and societal inequality.
The optimism surrounding AI's transformative potential must be balanced with concerns about significant job displacement in white-collar sectors.
Economists believe that the full impact of AI on productivity and economic growth will take years to fully understand and manifest.
Deep dives
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AI's Potential and Challenges
The rise of artificial intelligence has generated significant optimism among tech leaders regarding its transformative potential for the economy. Prominent figures in the AI field argue that advancements in technology could lead to increased productivity across various industries. However, concerns persist about the impact of AI on labor markets, as it may displace numerous workers in white-collar jobs similar to what happened with blue-collar roles in the past. The introduction of competitors like DeepSeek raises questions about the sustainability of current AI models and the implications for job security and economic equity.
Measuring AI's Economic Impact
Determining the overall impact of AI on productivity is a complex task that economists continue to grapple with. Historical evidence shows that new technologies often take time to exhibit their full effects on productivity and economic growth. While initial success may be observed in specific segments or case studies, the broader effects on overall labor markets and the distribution of gains may take years or even decades to materialize. The potential for significant job loss among white-collar workers introduces societal and political challenges that may emerge alongside technological advancements.
Silicon Valley tech leaders have been brimming with optimism in recent years about the future of artificial intelligence — and investors have bet big on the transformational power of the technology.
Then last week, China’s DeepSeek emerged as a disruptive force and the value of Nvidia Corp. fell by half a trillion dollars. More than ever, investors are wondering about whether big bets on AI will pay off in the long run.
Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlik sees three cases for how AI could reshape the global economy, ranging from the rosy to the dystopian. On today’s Big Take podcast, he and host David Gura break them down and explore what that future may hold not just for companies and investors — but for us all.