

S&P Will Fall 30% | Julian Brigden & Jimmy Connor
10 snips May 10, 2025
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, brings his macroeconomic expertise to discuss pressing financial trends. The conversation navigates the troubling dynamics for consumers as major companies report declining sales while the wealthy continue to spend. They delve into Warren Buffett’s views on economic warfare and the potential 30% drop in the S&P 500, alongside ongoing labor market challenges. The duo also explores future market expectations, including the impact of changing demographics on bonds and the Federal Reserve’s balancing act.
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US Dollar Decline Insight
- The US fiscal deficit remains high, worsening due to large government spending.
- A secular decline in the US dollar is likely and will profoundly impact financial markets.
Capital Flows and Dollar Impact
- A shrinking US current account deficit reduces foreign capital inflows to US assets.
- This lowers investment demand for US equities, making them less attractive to non-US investors.
Hedge Against Dollar Decline
- Investors holding US assets should hedge against a possible 30-40% decline in the US dollar.
- Unhedged exposure to US stocks will suffer significant losses if the dollar weakens.