Tsinghua's Da Wei: New Survey Research on Chinese Perceptions of Security
Oct 31, 2024
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In this discussion, Da Wei, Director at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, delves into a revealing public opinion poll on Chinese perceptions of international security. He highlights a growing national confidence coexisting with pessimism about U.S.-China relations. The conversation touches on Chinese views regarding the Russo-Ukrainian War, the effectiveness of U.S. diplomacy, and the evolving perception of the U.S. as a power-based rather than values-based country. Da Wei also reflects on the generational divide in attitudes toward international security.
A public opinion survey reveals a growing pessimism among Chinese citizens regarding global security yet optimism about their own country's safety.
Chinese respondents overwhelmingly believe the U.S. aims to contain China's development, illustrating deep skepticism towards American foreign policy intentions.
Despite a desire for proactive international engagement, there is a prevailing prioritization of domestic issues, reflecting a common global sentiment on resource allocation.
Deep dives
Understanding Chinese Perspectives on Global Security
A recent public opinion survey revealed a growing sense of pessimism among Chinese citizens regarding global security, contrasted by an optimistic view of China's own security situation. This shift in outlook has been attributed mainly to international events such as the Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, rather than any immediate threats to China itself. Interestingly, while individuals feel safe about their own country's standing, they remain concerned about global instability. This contradiction highlights a complex relationship between national confidence and international perceptions.
Public Sentiment on U.S.-China Relations
The survey results indicated that a significant percentage of Chinese respondents believe the U.S. aims to contain China's development, with 87.6% supporting this view, which reflects a deep-rooted skepticism towards U.S. intentions. Despite this negative sentiment towards the U.S. government, many respondents expressed positive feelings toward the American people, suggesting a potential channel for future goodwill. This complexity in perceptions illustrates the duality of admiration for American culture paired with frustration over foreign policy decisions. Such findings may provide a foundation for improving bilateral relations, as they point to a desire for understanding and communication.
Contradictions in Foreign Policy Perspectives
The survey findings demonstrated a paradox in public opinion where Chinese citizens desire a more proactive foreign policy, yet prioritize domestic affairs. This reflects a common sentiment globally, where people support their country's international presence but hesitate to bear the costs associated with military involvement or foreign aid. Although there is a strong wish for recognition on the global stage, the question of readiness to pay such costs remains critical. Additionally, this hesitation reveals an underlying concern about national resources being spent abroad rather than domestically.
The Role of Global Scientific Cooperation
Chinese respondents showed strong support for global scientific cooperation, viewing it as a vital component of globalization. However, there is an evident tension regarding educational exchanges, where parents increasingly question the long-term implications of sending their children to study abroad, particularly in the U.S. This declining enthusiasm for overseas education can be attributed to fears that graduates may choose to stay abroad instead of returning to contribute to China. The complex dynamics of globalization encompass both pride in scientific achievements and concerns about national interests, indicating a nuanced perspective on China's international engagement.
Impacts of the U.S. Political Landscape on China Relations
The podcast highlighted the uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China relations in light of the upcoming U.S. elections, particularly with Kamala Harris as the nominee. The prevailing sentiment in China suggests that, while Biden’s policy trajectory may continue under Harris, there is much speculation regarding her approach to China and its potential impact on bilateral relations. Concerns linger about a possible return to Trump-era policies, which many perceive could exacerbate tensions. Despite these anxieties, there remains a sense of cautious optimism for dialogue and engagement that could stabilize relations in the future.
This week, in a show taped in Beijing at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, I speak with Professor Da Wei about a new public opinion poll on China's perception of international security and review its important findings. We also discuss Chinese views on the Russo-Ukrainian War and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
2:11 – Da Wei’s new podcast
4:05 – CISS’s “Public Opinion Poll: Chinese Outlook on International Security 2024”
7:46 – The poll’s findings on pessimism about global security and the global influence of the U.S. and China
11:56 – China’s growing national confidence and growing pessimism about the U.S.-China relationship
18:26 – Paradoxical poll findings: proactive foreign policy stance vs. prioritizing domestic affairs, and involvement in global scientific cooperation vs. withdrawing in other areas of international agreement
24:30 – Why older respondents tended to be more pessimistic about China’s international security situation
25:58 – Understanding negative attitude toward the United States and the effectiveness of diplomacy
30:17 – The belief that the U.S. goal is containment of China’s development and the shift in view of America from a values-based country to a power-based country
36:12 – Chinese viewpoints on the Russo-Ukrainian war
39:22 – Da Wei’s travels in the U.S. and the changes he has perceived
45:04 – The U.S. agenda to dissuade China from deepening its involvement with Russia
49:02 – How Chinese views on the upcoming U.S. election have changed since Kamala Harris’ nomination
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Da Wei: Chen Jian’s Zhou Enlai: A Life; for Chinese to travel to the U.S. more