

Psychohistory : Isaac Asimov’s greatest idea
7 snips Aug 12, 2025
The discussion dives into the current crises of geopolitics and economics, linking them to themes of civilizational decline in science fiction. It explores psychohistory, a concept that attempts to forecast human behavior using statistical methods, while highlighting its limitations. The intersection of determinism and prophecy in narratives like Asimov's Foundation is also examined, revealing insights into societal dynamics. Lastly, the episode critiques the blend of psychohistory with Marxism, advocating for imagination in shaping future possibilities.
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The Selden Crisis Framing
- Damien Walter reframes our current global turmoil as a single interconnected 'Selden crisis' echoing Asimov's myth.
- He argues this polycrisis links geopolitics, economics, nationalism, ecology, and new technologies into one systemic emergency.
Asimov's Origin Story
- Damien Walter recounts Isaac Asimov's last-minute inspiration from Gibbon's Decline and Fall when pitching John W. Campbell.
- This sparked Asimov's question: how would a galactic empire collapse and how could civilization rise again?
What Psychohistory Claims
- Psychohistory models mass human behavior statistically, treating societies like gas particles to predict large-scale trends.
- It requires billions of people, ignorance of the model, and offers only low-resolution forecasts spanning a few generations.