Things I (Don't) Worry About - Chinese Investment in Mexico || Peter Zeihan
Nov 28, 2024
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Worries about Chinese investments in Mexico may be overblown. The narrative suggesting extensive industrialization for exporting to the U.S. is largely a myth. Analysis of foreign investment data shows China's limited presence due to infrastructure challenges. The conversation also contrasts Canadian investments in North America with those from China, highlighting the significance of agreements like NAFTA II. Lastly, concerns about China's economic decline are discussed, affecting the investment landscape in the region.
Chinese investments in Mexico are exaggerated, as they rank low in foreign investment, highlighting the narrative's lack of factual basis.
Future scenarios may require North America to expand its industrial capacity, especially if reliance on China continues to decrease.
Deep dives
The Misconception of Chinese Investment in Mexico
There is a widespread belief that China is building industrial plants in Mexico to bypass NAFTA regulations, but this assertion lacks foundation. In reality, China does not rank among the top foreign investors in Mexico, as its investment data is virtually nonexistent according to official statistics. This misconception is reminiscent of earlier fears surrounding Chinese farmland purchases, which also proved exaggerated, with Canada being the primary foreign entity owning U.S. farmland. The lack of substantial Chinese investment indicates that these narratives may be products of a post-truth environment where rumors gain traction without basis.
Potential Impacts and Concerns Regarding Future Investments
Should a significant Chinese industrial presence emerge in Mexico, it is likely to be visible, leading to potential labor unrest and heightened scrutiny from Mexican press and business leaders. The trade policies established under NAFTA II contain provisions that would address such developments, and Robert Lighthizer’s anticipated role in a second Trump term would ensure compliance with these rules. Additionally, the dynamics of the Chinese labor model, which typically involves importing their own workforce, would likely provoke strong reactions from local entities in Mexico. Despite the concerns regarding Chinese investment, the focus should also shift to preparing for a future where reliance on China diminishes, potentially necessitating an expansion of North American industrial capacity.
If you're getting worried about Chinese investments into infrastructure in Mexico, it might be time to switch the TV off and take a walk...because that narrative is a complete fabrication.