ThePrint PoliticallyCorrect: What Bihar results say about BJP’s prospects in Tamil Nadu,West Bengal, Kerala & Assam polls in 2026
Nov 18, 2025
The discussion kicks off with Bihar's surprising election results and their national implications. Analysts missed the NDA's win scale, which may signal favorable prospects for BJP in 2024. The effectiveness of Chirag Paswan's return is explored, enhancing the coalition's seat conversion. Various BJP strategies are dissected, including welfare freebies and coalition-building with smaller parties. Additionally, future challenges in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are examined, emphasizing unique regional dynamics and electoral hurdles.
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Consolidation, Not Melting Identity Politics
- The Bihar landslide reflected vote consolidation for the NDA rather than caste politics melting away.
- The 2024 Lok Sabha consolidation carried into the 2025 assembly and translated into far more seats for the NDA.
Efficient Vote Transfer Drove Seats
- Vote-share comparisons in contested constituencies show BJP and allies grew between 2020 and 2024, sustaining into 2025.
- Efficient vote transfer and Chirag Paswan's return to NDA materially boosted seat conversion.
Why Observers Missed The Tsunami
- Confirmation bias and visible gaffes by Nitish Kumar masked the underlying vote consolidation for the NDA.
- Journalists and pollsters misread the electorate because they focused on surface-level anti-incumbency narratives.