Markets Pricing in US Strikes on Iran

Jun 23, 2025

Guest

Paul Sankey

Guest

Robert D. Kaplan

Guest

Richard Haas

Richard Haass, a seasoned expert on international relations, delves into the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and its potential to disrupt global markets. Robert D. Kaplan offers insights on U.S. military actions targeting Iranian nuclear sites and their implications for foreign policy. Paul Sankey discusses how these geopolitical tensions could impact oil prices and inflation, underlining the importance of market reactions to these events. The conversation reveals how critical understanding these dynamics is for investors and policymakers alike.

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INSIGHT

Shift in Crisis Control to Iran

The U.S. carried out a precise military strike against Iran's nuclear program to set it back while trying to limit broader conflict.
Control over the crisis has shifted to Iran, meaning their decisions now largely shape the conflict's future.

INSIGHT

Presidential Authority on Military Action

The U.S. president has the authority to conduct military strikes without congressional approval, consistent with historic practice.
Advisably, diplomacy and public consensus should precede military action for legitimacy and support.

INSIGHT

Iran's Short-Term Response Posture

Iran is unlikely to retaliate immediately due to prioritizing regime survival and diminished military capability.
They retain asymmetric options like missile attacks on U.S. forces, disruptive shipping actions, cyber, and terrorism.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations, joins for a discussion on the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran vowed retaliation and continued attacks on Israel following US strikes on its nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The conflict has also raised concerns about oil prices and inflation.
2) Robert D. Kaplan, author and foreign affairs expert, joins for a discussion on the Iran-Israel conflict and whether the US involvement stops at this weekend's strikes. The US operation targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles, and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs.
3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on why oil has now become central to her 2025 S&P target. US equity futures advanced and crude prices fluctuated on speculation that Iran's response to Washington's bombing of its nuclear sites is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil traffic from the Middle East.
4) Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses how the Fed's approach to rates could be reshaped by a potential oil and inflation spike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.39%, and a data release showed private sector activity in the euro area barely grew in June, as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies uncertain about what's next.
5) Paul Sankey, Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, discusses the path for oil and energy from here. Oil prices initially surged after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but later dropped as fears of an immediate supply disruption faded. The oil market remains gripped by an escalating crisis, with risks including a potential disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on crude infrastructure in rival suppliers.

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