Richard Haass, a seasoned expert on international relations, delves into the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and its potential to disrupt global markets. Robert D. Kaplan offers insights on U.S. military actions targeting Iranian nuclear sites and their implications for foreign policy. Paul Sankey discusses how these geopolitical tensions could impact oil prices and inflation, underlining the importance of market reactions to these events. The conversation reveals how critical understanding these dynamics is for investors and policymakers alike.
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insights INSIGHT
Shift in Crisis Control to Iran
The U.S. carried out a precise military strike against Iran's nuclear program to set it back while trying to limit broader conflict.
Control over the crisis has shifted to Iran, meaning their decisions now largely shape the conflict's future.
insights INSIGHT
Presidential Authority on Military Action
The U.S. president has the authority to conduct military strikes without congressional approval, consistent with historic practice.
Advisably, diplomacy and public consensus should precede military action for legitimacy and support.
insights INSIGHT
Iran's Short-Term Response Posture
Iran is unlikely to retaliate immediately due to prioritizing regime survival and diminished military capability.
They retain asymmetric options like missile attacks on U.S. forces, disruptive shipping actions, cyber, and terrorism.
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In "Wasteland: A World in Permanent Crisis," Robert D. Kaplan delivers a stark assessment of the current global order. He examines the rise of instability, the erosion of traditional power structures, and the challenges facing the international community. Kaplan's analysis is grounded in his extensive travels and firsthand observations, offering a unique perspective on the complex geopolitical landscape. He explores the interplay of economic, social, and environmental factors contributing to global instability. The book serves as a wake-up call, urging readers to confront the realities of a world grappling with unprecedented challenges.
The Prize
The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power
Daniel Yergin
The Prize chronicles the struggle for wealth and power that has surrounded oil for over a century. The book spans from the drilling of the first well in Pennsylvania through two great world wars, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Operation Desert Storm, and the Iraq War, to current climate change. It is a definitive work on the subject of oil, addressing its role in shaping major world events, global power dynamics, and the ongoing energy crisis. Yergin's narrative includes the rise of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil, the discovery of oil in various regions, and the geopolitical clashes over oil resources, making it crucial for understanding world politics and the global economy[2][3][5].
Our Dollar, Your Problem
Kenneth Rogoff
The Bill of Obligations
The Ten Habits of Good Citizens
Richard Haass
In 'The Bill of Obligations,' Richard Haass argues that American democracy can only thrive if the concept of citizenship is revised to include not just rights, but also obligations. Haass introduces ten essential obligations for good citizenship, such as being informed, getting involved, staying open to compromise, remaining civil, rejecting violence, and promoting the common good. These obligations are designed to counter the growing apathy, anger, selfishness, division, disinformation, and violence that threaten American democracy. The book blends civics, history, and political analysis to provide a roadmap for citizens to rediscover and recover the attitudes and behaviors that have contributed to the country's success.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 23rd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations, joins for a discussion on the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran vowed retaliation and continued attacks on Israel following US strikes on its nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The conflict has also raised concerns about oil prices and inflation. 2) Robert D. Kaplan, author and foreign affairs expert, joins for a discussion on the Iran-Israel conflict and whether the US involvement stops at this weekend's strikes. The US operation targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles, and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. 3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on why oil has now become central to her 2025 S&P target. US equity futures advanced and crude prices fluctuated on speculation that Iran's response to Washington's bombing of its nuclear sites is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil traffic from the Middle East. 4) Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses how the Fed's approach to rates could be reshaped by a potential oil and inflation spike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.39%, and a data release showed private sector activity in the euro area barely grew in June, as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies uncertain about what's next. 5) Paul Sankey, Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, discusses the path for oil and energy from here. Oil prices initially surged after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but later dropped as fears of an immediate supply disruption faded. The oil market remains gripped by an escalating crisis, with risks including a potential disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on crude infrastructure in rival suppliers.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
