

Oil Climbs as Israel-Iran Conflict Amps Up Market Risks
19 snips Jun 15, 2025
Pavel Molchanov, an Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James & Associates, and Patrick Kennedy, Founding Partner at AllSource Investment Management, dive into the soaring oil prices amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. They discuss the implications of geopolitical strife on oil markets and inflation, and how these factors could impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates. The conversation also touches on strategies for investors amid market uncertainties and the evolving role of natural gas as a key energy source.
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Oil Market Overprices Worst Case
- The oil market prices in a worst-case scenario despite no real supply disruptions yet.
- Market reaction is driven more by panic and uncertainty than actual fundamental supply issues.
Oil Supply Disruption Impact
- If 1% of oil supply is disrupted, prices rise by 5%, so a 20% disruption could double prices.
- High prices would damage the economy and invoke strategic reserves, preventing fuel shortages.
Fed Cautious on Iran Conflict
- The Fed likely won't change rates immediately due to the Iran crisis, given uncertainty about escalation or resolution.
- Policymakers prefer to see clear developments before adjusting policy based on geopolitical events.