Dr. Bruce Yandle's June 2023 Economic Situation Report
Jun 20, 2023
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Dr. Bruce Yandle, Distinguished Adjunct Fellow at Mercatus, discusses the rollercoaster economy, subsidies and tariffs, predictions for 2023, and Adam Smith's ambition and interactions with ordinary people.
The constant intervention by the government in response to economic shocks has resulted in an economy heavily influenced by monetary and fiscal policy interventions, blurring the line between what is real and artificial.
The roller coaster nature of the economy, with significant growth followed by deceleration, is evident in the fluctuation of the money supply, particularly in the measure known as M2.
Deep dives
The Impact of Shocks on the Economy
The podcast discusses the series of shocks that have affected the economy, including the 2008 recession, COVID-19, and geopolitical events. These shocks have led to constant and consistent intervention by the government on various levels. The result is an economy that is heavily influenced by monetary and fiscal policy interventions, making it difficult to discern what is real and what is artificial. The podcast also highlights the roller coaster nature of the economy, particularly with regard to the money supply, which has experienced significant growth followed by deceleration.
The Roller Coaster Money Supply
The podcast examines the growth and fluctuations of the money supply, particularly the measure known as M2. It reveals that in 2021, there was a 25% year-over-year growth in M2, largely driven by monetary stimuli in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This led to concerns about inflation, as increasing money supply often leads to price level effects several months later. The Federal Reserve responded by tightening monetary policy, causing M2 growth to decrease. The podcast highlights the roller coaster nature of the economy, with significant growth followed by deceleration.
The Bootlegger Baptist Theory of Regulation
The podcast explores the concept of the Bootlegger Baptist theory of regulation, which suggests that regulations are often supported by seemingly conflicting groups for different reasons. It points out specific examples related to subsidies and tariffs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the electric vehicle regulatory landscape. The subsidies provided under the act favor electric vehicle manufacturers located in the United States that use batteries produced in the United States and employ union workers. This highlights the alignment of interests between environmentalists and organized labor. The podcast also discusses how tariffs on aluminum and steel can be framed as environmental measures, aimed at promoting cleaner production, while also appealing to unions. The podcast emphasizes the role of regulations and how they can serve the agendas of different groups.
On this episode, Patrick McLaughlin, a Senior Research Fellow and Director of Policy Analytics here at Mercatus, chats about the latest economic situation report with Dr. Bruce Yandle, who is a Distinguished Adjunct Fellow here at Mercatus. They discuss Bruce's rollercoaster economy, subsidies and tariffs and how they fit into the bootlegger-Baptist theory of regulation, predictions for the remainder of 2023, Bruce's reading recommendations, and much more.
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