The President's Daily Brief PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
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Dec 21, 2024 Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, discusses a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas amid ongoing tensions. He highlights the implications of hostage negotiations and military dynamics. Meanwhile, open source intelligence analyst Ryan McBeth covers key developments in Ukraine's war, including the introduction of North Korean troops and Russia's military challenges. They both shed light on the geopolitical landscape shaping these conflicts and what the future may hold for both regions.
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Israel's Advantage
- Israel holds the upper hand in the conflict with Hamas due to their military successes and the weakening of Hamas' support structure.
- The destruction of Hamas brigades, the establishment of the Nitzarim Corridor, and the weakening of Hezbollah and the Assad regime contribute to Israel's advantage.
Ceasefire Implications
- A ceasefire allows Hamas and Iran to rebuild, but Israel's control over key corridors can limit re-arming.
- The Philadelphia Corridor and Netzerim Corridor are crucial for preventing Hamas' resupply and maintaining Israeli control.
Long-Term Solutions in Gaza
- Israel's likely to maintain a presence in Gaza despite previous demands from Hamas for complete withdrawal. A longer-term solution requires new political leadership in Gaza, potentially backed by pragmatic Gulf states.